2021

Mayor Steve Ferguson admitted during his first New Year’s Levee that he is still adjusting to giving speeches. Fair-minded observers of our local government may be inclined, therefore, to make some allowance for the massive oversight in his remarks on Sunday. But the truth is, that we are running out of time to be fair minded. We are in the midst of a crisis. And we aren’t even talking about it. Mayor Ferguson spoke about his hopes for a new hospital. He talked about retaining the character of our neighbourhoods, about financial stability and managing assets. All good things, but he failed to mention the looming threat that risks obliterating all of these ambitions.

He talked about challenges such as affordable housing and shortterm accommodations—without acknowledging that these are symptoms of a much deeper problem we face in Prince Edward County.

Council can, and must, play a more muscular role in tackling the asteroid burning its way toward Prince Edward County. But to do so, Mayor Ferguson and his new council must demonstrate they understand the threat and its implications for life in this community.

So let me put this as plainly as possible. Our population is shrinking. This is death to our community as we know it. It is already transforming and deforming the place in ways that will be difficult to restore. It will continue to erode neighbourhoods, mangle finances and weaken our ambitions for a new hospital.

There is no challenge this new council will face that is greater than stemming the loss of residents in this community. It is that simple.

Yet this looming crisis got no mention in the mayor’s Levee remarks. This should send a shiver through every resident of this County.

We are losing people. Losing families. Our community is changing as a result. Incrementally. But unrelentingly. Unless something is done soon to reverse this trend, we will not recognize the place in a couple of decades. Our hospital may be gone. Our schools boarded up. The food store replaced by a Marriott. Our hardware store a nightclub or upscale boutique. The only families we’ll see will be visitors on Pumpkinfest or Maple in the County.

In 2006, the County’s population peaked at 25,496 people. By the next census in 2011, the County’s population fell to 25,258. A small drop, perhaps just a blip. Except that by the next census in 2016, the County’s population had fallen further still to 24,735. This was no longer a statistical aberration, it was a trend. A very dangerous trend.

If this is too abstract, let me paint a starker picture. If by 2021 we don’t have a new hospital built and kitted out and staffed, and that census shows the County’s population has continued its downward trend, then all bets are off. No amount of County fundraising, council support or lobbying by our MPP will alter the decision-making of the provincial health ministry.

It will be cut. Or diminished so severely it will be unrecognizable as a hospital—certainly to the physicians and healthcare professionals who will surely disperse to pursue their careers elsewhere.

This is because decisions regarding healthcare investment in Ontario is based upon population growth. Full stop. There may be some lobbying around the edges. Some well formulated arguments about an aging population and such. Council delegations. Petitions. But here is the thing. If our population continues to fall by 2021, there will be no further investment in healthcare facilities made in this community— either in a new hospital, long-term care beds, clinics or anything else.

There is no shortage of growing communities around Toronto, Ottawa and London making compelling cases for healthcare dollars. Prince Edward County’s withering roster of voters will not register in this competition.

Our schools have already heard the tolling bell. One more negative census signal and we had better start making plans for our remaining elementary school buildings.

Shire Hall’s finances are already massively inadequate to the task of maintaining our infrastructure, so a declining tax base will only serve to compound the pain, and render any potential remedy exponentially more intractable.

We are already feeling the effects of declining population. The lack of affordable housing is raised up as a problem in isolation. This is dangerously myopic. Shortterm accommodation rules and regulations, though undeniably important, will not stem the trend toward falling population.

Lack of affordable housing and dark neighbourhoods due to STA are symptoms—and as painful and damaging as they are—they are not the root problem. Treating these symptoms while ignoring the cause is a path that is doomed to fail.

Council can, and must look to the root.

To do this will require much more than the talk and quickly forgotten commitments made by the last term of council. It will require investment and structural change in the way Shire Hall views its purpose. It will be hard and likely painful.

But we can hardly expect to tackle the crisis of depopulation if we don’t recognize it as a problem. If we aren’t even talking about it.

So, let’s call it an oversight by a new mayor still adjusting to giving speeches. But let us remember that we are running out of precious time.

Next week: Some possible remedies.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca