Comment
Build
For eight years we have known that the County’s population is declining. There was denial at first. We saw so many new folks arriving, it didn’t make sense. But we weren’t tracking those leaving. Then the trend was confirmed in 2016. There was no more denying it.
Years have slipped by and we have failed to take concrete steps to alter this trajectory. We are sleepwalking toward a crisis in 2021. If that census shows the County’s population continuing to shrink, the implication for this community will be profoundly negative.
What’s the remedy? First, we must understand the problem—and not get lost in the symptoms. Too many call out newcomers for bidding up the prices of homes. Or shortterm accommodations displacing families. Or rapidly rising property taxes and waterworks. These factors all contribute to the exodus— but they aren’t the cause.
The fact is that the fundamental homebuying equation is broken in Prince Edward County. In the simplest of terms, there is strong demand to live here, and very little housing stock to supply this need. As economics teaches us, when demand outstrips supply, prices rise. And they can rise quickly as we’ve seen in the County.
Treat Hull and Associates tracks resale housing trends in the County. They report that the median house prices doubled from 2009 to 2018 (from $198,780 to $399,950). That is the difference between affordable and unaffordable.
Those cashing in on this windfall, however, must leave. There is no affordable homes for them here. So they move. Rising house prices and inadequate supply discourage young working families. They must live elsewhere.
This trend won’t abate unless, and until, we fix our broken economics. Tweaking on the edges with second suites or regulating STAs will help to ameliorate the pain, but it won’t fix the problem. Worse it won’t alter our long-term population drain.
What will?
New homebuilding. We need to build more homes. Fast. Many more homes. Enough homes to satisfy the demand. At the very least, easing this imbalance will serve to stabilize the market and put a lid on the upward slope in prices.
We have not been building nearly enough homes in Prince Edward County to keep up with demand. Belleville built 314 new residential units last year—a mix of single family homes, townhomes and apartments. Quinte West built 241. The County issued permits for just 159 new homes—down from 178 the year before.
I contend that demand to live in the County is much stronger than it is in any of our neighbouring communities, so it is likely that the growth our neighbours are enjoying is based somewhat on the County’s allure.
We have been sitting on a stock of nearly 2,000 potential homes in the County for over a decade. Yet these new subdivisions languish. Why? Anecdotally, builders say it is too difficult to do business with Shire Hall. Too expensive. Too slow. The Planning and Works bureaucracy, they say, is too unresponsive. Too inflexible.
In 2015, in response to a chorus of such criticisms, the County assembled a group of builders, councillors and Shire Hall staff to identify the hurdles and recommend ways to remove them. It was declared an urgent priority. In March 2017 the group produced a list of more than 30 recommendations. Very specific recommendations. (Please find the full report here.)
Nearly two years later, just six of these actions have been completed, 19 are categorized as “In process”. Seven have not been addressed at all.
The responsibility for this woefully inadequate response should not be laid solely at the feet of the bureaucrats. Big transformations require constant backpressure from the elected folks, and that needs focus. Asking questions. Setting timelines. Getting answers.
It also means money. Council must commit the funds these folks need to do the job. It must invest in humans to implement these recommendations. To answer phones. Respond to emails. Process files, rather than being snowed under by them.
To do this we need to give them the tools, the resources and the incentive to get the job done.
It is understood inside Shire Hall that this is an urgent priority. This is from the staff report in 2017 in presenting the development recommendations to council.
“While new home builds have been increasing annually in the County, the supply continues to lag demand. Council has prioritized a need for more residential development in order to meet the needs of the community and economy.”
What is needed now is the political will and resources. Urgently. Council needs our support and encouragement to make it happen. The clock is ticking.
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