Columnists
The missing candidates
So Andrew Scheer saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as Conservative leader. And so far, eight people—including party co-founder Peter MacKay and last time’s third place finisher Erin O’Toole—have applied to replace him.
The other six declared candidates are Aron Seal, a former director of policy for two cabinet ministers; Rick Peterson, an Alberta businessman; Bobby Singh, an entrepreneur and former candidate; Derek Sloan, MP for Hastings – Lennox and Addington; Marilyn Gladu, MP for Sarnia – Lambton; and Richard Decarie, a former political aide to Stephen Harper. However, they are all considered to be also rans; Mackay and O’Toole are the only two entries considered worth handicapping, so far.
But the big news this past week was not who was joining the race, but who was staying out. Jean Charest, Rona Ambrose and Pierre Poilievre were all expected to join in, but pulled back at the last minute.
The Times has learned—from sources that we have agreed to keep confidential as they were not authorized to speak to us—the names of many other people who have also decided not to seek the leadership. Among them are former party leaders Stephen Harper, Joe Clark, Kim Campbell, Brian Mulroney, Stockwell Day and Preston Manning.
These non-candidates also include many Conservatives who are serving or who have served in other government. Doug Ford, who is busy recasting himself as Bill Davis 2.0, is not running. Neither is Todd Smith, our local MPP, who you would think would want to get out from under the weight of Doug Ford; nor Daryl Kramp, our former MP gone provincial. Nor are Ford cabinet heavyweights like Caroline Mulroney, Christine Elliott and Rod Phillips. And there has been a similar dead silence from Alberta premier Jason Kenney, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe, Manitoba premier Brian Pallister, New Brunswick premier Blaine Higgs and Newfoundland and Labrador premier Dwight Ball—Conservatives all.
Let’s look beyond the pool of elected Conservatives and consider some individuals who have not thrown their hats into the ring. Conrad Black is out. He’s busy packing up his 40,000 books as he moves away from his Bridle Path mansion into a one-bedroom condo in Etobicoke. Another prominent Canadian not running is Margaret Atwood, who has recently made a career out of accepting awards. Evidently, she does not see the Conservative leadership as another trophy she might add to her collection. Former NHL coach Don Cherry is also conspicuously absent from the list of registered candidates, as is another recently turfed hockey man, former Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock. Absent too are Napanee rocker Avril Lavigne (whose name usually appears in lists like this one), and recently packed off back to British Columbia CBC news anchor Ian Hanomansing. And Mr. Gerald Smithers, of Halifax, Nova Scotia, is not running for the leadership either. Said Mr. Smithers “I have no time for politicians, so why would I want to become one?”
In fact, the number of Canadians not running for the Conservative leadership is expected to be in excess of 37 million—a staggering number, almost equivalent to the entire population of the country. Whole communities—like Wellington—exist where there is no one running for the leadership. There must be some reason.
Most observers attribute it to what Charles Atlas called “dynamic tension.” On the one hand, the party base consists of a large number of social conservatives. On the other hand, it isn’t a large enough base to win government routinely, so the urge is there to reach out to more moderate voters, which doesn’t sit well with the base. Moderate voters, however, are put off by the positions taken to mollify the base. The Conservative leader therefore spends a disproportionate amount of time managing this tension, which never goes away.
A far more plausible explanation is that, on December 7, 2003—the date the Conservative party was created—the astrological forecast (according to a horoscope website I checked) for a person born on that date was for a bossy personality with a risk of bipolar disorder. So maybe it was set in the stars to be a difficult journey for the party.
Good thing they’ve got eight candidates already, then. Maybe the other 37 million of us are smarter than we realize.
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