Columnists
Step three beckons
On Friday, Ontario will move on to Step Three of its three-step COVID-19 recovery plan. And the floodgates will verily open. Outdoor social gatherings may be held for up to 100 people. Indoor gatherings for up to 25 people will be allowed. Restaurants will be open for both indoor and outdoor dining, without table size limits. Essential and nonessential retail stores will be open subject to physical distancing guidelines, as will churches. You will even be able to get your hair cut—if you can find a barber who doesn’t have a lineup.
There are very few limits on what you can do. Movie theatres, museums, casinos and bingo halls will be allowed to open, but at 50 per cent capacity. Sports arenas will be permitted to open, but limited to 1,000 spectators. You will even be able to go to a strip club —if you stay two metres away from the staff. But that’s about it.
But as Step Three begins, attention is bound to turn to the next milestone—the day the Step Three restrictions are lifted. The recovery plan lists the preconditions for it to arrive. First, Step Three must have been in effect for at least 21 days, so the earliest the restrictions can end is August 6. Second, 80 per cent of the 12-and-over population must have received two doses of vaccine. Third, each local health unit must report an over 70 per cent double vaccination level.
But there is nothing to say that the Ontario government will not insist on masking and social distancing to continue after the end of Step Three, or at least prescribe it as recommended conduct. So perhaps the bigger change will be noticed when Step Three begins, rather than when it ends.
Meeting the Step Three termination criteria will be a challenge, although we met the transition into Step Two quite handily.
The most recent data on the Web is from July 7. It shows double-dose coverage for 80-plus seniors at 75.9 per cent and for 70-79 year olds at 74.0 per cent. For 18-29 year olds, the number is 31.2 per cent, and for 12-17 year olds, it is 14.7 per cent. (Much of the lower rate of uptake in these two younger groups can be explained by their later eligibility for initial vaccination.) The overall, blended percentage of the double vaccinated is 41.1 per cent. We’re getting there, but when we will get there remains an open question.
From a day spent poring over the data, one conclusion is compelling. The dramatic decline in new COVID-19 cases (in Ontario on July 11, there were just 114 new cases; three months ago, there were over 4,000 a day) occurs at the same time as vaccines are more widely available and Ontarians are being vaccinated at a brisker rate. You would almost think that the two were causally related.
Indeed, a Surveillance Report issue by Public Health Ontario, with data to July 3, says a conservative calculation of vaccine efficacy concludes that vaccination has avoided at least 28,583 COVID-19 cases in the adult population of Ontario.
Like everyone else, having spent the last 16 months in a state of closeted docility with my immediate family as my constant companions, I suspect it will take me a while to ease into the old social routines. Maybe I’ll still keep my mask on when I don’t absolutely have to, and store my unused masks in a handy place. Maybe I’ll also keep my social distance—just for a while, just to hedge my bets. And I’ll refrain from offering those passionate cheek on cheek kisses so beloved in European etiquette, in favour of much safer fist on fist or elbow on elbow bumps. You can never be too careful. I’d better mind my Step (Three).
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