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Start of a conversation
An argument is beginning to emerge from the sturm and drang, from the crippling anxiety gripping Shire Hall over waterworks this summer. Indirect and incomplete for sure, but like brave emissaries carrying messages across the valley from the king to his masses—while not ideal—it’s better than the alternative. So far, the instinct in Shire Hall has been to quell dissent, suppress the conversation, and confuse the masses with a dizzying array of engineering drawings, dubious assumptions and suggestions dressed up as unassailable conclusions. So, in contrast, truncated communication is better.
The arguments as presented by Shire Hall envoys are thus: 1. Wellington’s village boundaries set out in 1980 imply a built-out population of 8,600. 2. The village’s Secondary Plan obligates the municipality to provide expanded waterworks for thousands of new folks on the developer’s timeline. 3. The developer is ready to start building hundreds of homes in Wellington—only waiting for trunk lines to be installed under the Millennium Trail. 4. The existing water and wastewater plants are at the end of their life. 5. That waterworks is a complex system— highly regulated, highly technical—and that Shire Hall, and residents by extension—must rely upon experts—engineering, financing and financial modelling—to do the thinking for us.
It is my personal view that each of these arguments is critically flawed—not without merit or consideration, mind you—but that, ultimately, they are demonstrably untrue. I will use this column over the next couple of weeks to explain why.
Experts pegged the estimate for the Picton wastewater treatment plan at $16 million. By the time shovels were in the ground, the estimate had risen to $22 million. When it was completed, the total price tag was more than $33 million— more than double the original estimate. At the ceremonial sod turning on September 10, 2010, representing three levels of government were MPP Leona Dombrowski, MP Darryl Kramp and Mayor Leo Finnegan.
Let’s start with the last one—waterworks is too complex to be debated among the users or residents. I might have some time for this argument if the customers of this utility had effective representation on the governance level—but they don’t. We’ve discussed many times before the frailty of 14 council members—most of whom have no stake in the water system—making longterm decisions on behalf of those who have the entire stake, so we won’t dwell on it today.
Instead, let’s look at Shire Hall’s track record. The last time our local government made a major investment in waterworks, it resulted in a gravity-fed wastewater plant perched way up on a hill overlooking the town it serves.
But let’s leave aside some dubious mechanical and geographic choices and zoom in on the financial planning. A decade and a half ago, provincial and federal governments were still helping to finance big infrastructure projects in municipalities such as ours. (There is seemingly no prospect of such support this time around.) Each level of government— federal, provincial, and municipal—agreed to put up a third of the cost of a new sewage treatment plant in Picton. The cost estimate: $16 million.
There were big smiles, gold-coloured shovels, and much handshaking on the day provincial and federal representatives handed over their cheques for $5.3 million each. By then, the cost estimate had already risen to $18 million—but any cost overruns beyond the original estimate were now entirely the municipality’s responsibility—or, more precisely, to be borne by the customers of the waterworks utility.
Detailed drawings and final cost estimates were then commissioned from other consulting experts. The new and final cost: $22 million. But when the plant was constructed a year later, the final bill had crested $33 million.
Let’s review. The experts first estimated $16 million, but the actual cost—for which waterworks customers across the County continue to pay down the debt—was more than double. Operating costs—primarily the cost of pumping heavy sewage up and down a steep hill— are many times more than the estimates provided by the experts.
To be crystal clear—and there can be no debate on this point—we need experts. We need folks who understand the engineering, the environmental impact, and the plumbing of complex waterworks plants. We need experts on pipes and pumps. We need the number crunchers to model the financing scenarios and options. These folks are essential in the planning of such projects. But they are not God. They do not prescribe commandments carved in rock tablets. Experts give advice. They provide options and alternatives and explain the pros and cons of various options. They inform the conversation.
But no organization should hand over its brain to consultants. The experts need smart operations folks—and we have those—to shape the planning and to ensure things fit and work within existing structures and systems. Experts also need a vigorous two-way dialogue with stakeholders—those who will finance the project and those who will live with the consequences for decades. No rightthinking organization hands the keys to the experts and hopes for the best. Nor should it ask stakeholders in this system to do so.
So, no, waterworks is not too complex—this notion is as wrong as it is insulting. Waterworks customers have a direct financial stake in the outcome of the planning for the system, for which they pay all the costs. They have a stake in the greenspace surrounding the existing Wellington plant. They have a stake in the assumption of thousands of new homes sprouting soon in Wellington—assumptions that underpin these plans. It is the residents’ waterworks—these are their decisions to make.
Certainly, it is harder and messier to engage meaningfully with stakeholders. But it can be no other way. Customers of this utility and residents of this village—unsure about massive growth and the process so far—demand a seat at the table.
The Water and Wastewater plan was based upon the premise that there were 4 major developers ready to proceed with building in Wellington. They were: Wellington Bay Esatates, Lakeside Estates, the Kaitlin Group and the Fields of Wellington (Hirschfield). Let us look at these. Wellington Bay Estates got to the plan of subdivision stage. One of the owners has sold its interest in this project, its ‘office’ appears to be closed and nothing has seemingly been done to the property in the last year. Lakeside Estates is directly to the west of WBE. Nothing has been done there and the developer does not even mention it on its website. The Fields of Wellington got to the plan stage. Mr Hirschfield has sold to the Kaitlin Group. Kaitlin placed signs for Cork and Vine on the land last year and said they would have houses in place by Fall 2023. That would be a minor miracle as there has been no work other than sign erection.
The consultant that the County employed provided scenarios for the County to consider. The most realistic option was growth along the same lines as we seen historically. At the other end of the spectrum was the assumption that every proposed house would be built. At least in the most recent technical documents the consultant (a different one), advocated for a phased approach to building.
At the present time, there does not seem to be any developer who is ready to put shovels in the ground. At the present time, with a slowed real estate market where are the consumers who would buy if building was happening.
It is incumbent upon Council to reexamine the basis upon which it made earlier decisions and determine what if any of those considerations apply….or whether they ever really did.
Quoting from a Times article in June of 2022, “…Bill Daniell, president of Kaitlin Corporation told an invitation-only crowd that was arrayed around the stables and mow of the majestic century-old barn that houses Karlo Estates, that his firm is ready to go—with plans to begin moving dirt this fall and and the prospect of sprouting new home by autumn of 2023. Starting prices will be $500,000.”
By then Kaitlin had purchased the proposed “Fields of Wellington” subdivision. As Rick Conroy has pointed out many time that one company owns all the available land slated for development between Consecon St to Belleville Road (and beyond) north of the Trail.
To date Kaitlin has not started moving dirt nor have they sprouted any homes. I emailed Katilin asking when construction will begin. The response: “Currently sales of Cork and Vine are on hold.”
It may be argued that this “hold” is in place because the waterworks have not yet been built. That is disingenuous in my opinion. It completely ignores what has happened in the real estate marketplace over the past few years. There was a flurry of proposed building activity during Covid as builders saw GTA folks looking to get out of their condos and into some place with space to live. As well the work from home movement basically unknown pre Covid came to be. Tourists flocked to the County. Houses were picked up to become Airbnb’s. Then supply chain problems arose. Materials for building became insanely expensive. Inflation raised its ugly head and the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates. People could not afford mortgages at the new rates on these high priced homes. Prices began to slide back and sales dropped.
If you watch the local real estate market as I do, you will see more and more STA properties for sale. You will also see houses sitting on the market for much longer and selling for less than would have been expected just prior to interest rate increases.
For Kaitlin the question is who comprises their market. Likely not local folks. The tourism volume while still significant seems to have dropped back to pre Covid levels. GTA employers are calling staff back to the office. What incentive is there for Kaitlin to begin building?
Rick has mentioned how long it took for Welllington’s population to double. If one looks at the ‘newer’ housing developments that exist in Wellington, one was building in 1972 and another was building in the 1990,s. In some, unsold lots remained until into the 2000’s. Wellington on the Lake began back in the 1990’s. Building there exploded just before Covid. Why? It is a senior community and the demand coincided with the Baby Boomers retiring and cashing in on the value of properties they likely have owned for decades. Building growth has been slow over the history of this village.
As I gather the current water and wastewater facilities although older have unused capacity. I gather that the current construction there will help alleviate some of the wastewater issues. Really, why build without a guarantee that there will be consumers? In 2022, the Times article indicated that Kaitlin had owned the land by Belleville Road for 18 years. The own even more now and shovels have not hit the ground.
It is ironic that Wellington has a Field of Dreams. In this case though “If you build it they will come” shows no sign of ever being true.