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Wishful thinking
It was always just make-believe. ‘Build it, and they will come,’ Shire Hall said. Five hundred folks came to a meeting in Wellington, hoping the story was plausible. They wanted facts. They wanted evidence to support the assumption that Wellington is about to grow fourfold. They wanted to know why they should pay $100 million to be ready for the inundation of humanity predicted for this village—a prediction few believe. They wanted Shire Hall to show them their work. They wanted to see for themselves that the numbers made sense. Most went away empty-handed. There was no such evidence— just a regurgitation of the same fantastical story. Plus, a whiff of weariness that Shire Hall is tired of explaining itself to you.
There is little evidence that Wellington waterworks plants are at the end of their life, notwithstanding the steady refrain from Shire Hall and presented as ‘reality’ in these pages.
The closest one can come to an assessment of the condition of these plants is from the consulting engineer’s Master Serving Plan. It finds there are issues and limitations to these plants but says nothing about being at the end of their service life. Not surprisingly, the Plan finds that current plants won’t serve the massive influx of population projected. No one ought to be shocked to learn that a plant built for 3,000 people won’t accommodate 8,600 people or 14,500. But that isn’t the question. A cornerstone of this $100 million project is that these plants are at the end of their life. The Master Servicing Plan doesn’t say that.
The MSP authors describe it as an opportunity. They base their conclusions on the notion that waves of new residents are coming to pay for new plants. It is not evidence—it is wishful thinking. There was nothing on offer last Thursday to make it less so.
On Thursday last week, many folks were skeptical that Wellington would suddenly grow four or seven times its current population. What if they don’t come, they asked. What they really wanted to know, however, was, ‘Who would pay for the hundreds of millions of dollars of infrastructure investment if the predictions are wrong?’
There was no answer to the latter question— beyond the assertions the County has $4 million of the developer’s money. As to the imminent population boom, the demographer spoke generally about immigration pressures, outward migration from the big cities and a recent uptick in the economic outlook for the region. Yet the consultant acknowledged that predicting the future was hard and that they would reset their expectations with a few more years of data, or ‘course correct.’ He waved off observations that the population surge runs diametrically opposite to historical trends in the County and this village. He did not address the conundrum that Council is making funding decisions based on current predictions, not future corrections.
Few of the 500 folks packed into the hall believe anything close to these kinds of predictions will come true. They are increasingly resentful of being told they have to pay for infrastructure for a developer. They heard nothing on Thursday to persuade them otherwise.
Few believe, either, that a million square feet of commercial development is coming to Wellington in their lifetimes. And if it were just meaningless speculation, few would care. Except the Plan relies on this scale of strip malls, grocery stores and offices to pay $30 million for the Wellington waterworks reconstruction. The demographer admitted it wasn’t his work—but that, in his view, “nothing stands out as unreasonable.” Again, not evidence. Nothing to inspire confidence.
All we learned on Thursday is that waterworks users have already spent $18 million on a tower, a tank and some studies for a developer who, so far, remains on the sidelines. The developer has put up just $4 million. Already, waterworks users are down $14 million. However, Shire Hall leadership assured the folks in Wellington on Thursday that when/if Council approves a new $15 million trunk line under the Millennium Trail, the developer will pay $11 million. Waterworks users across the County are being asked to fund $33 million of infrastructure for this developer— who may spend $15 million. Maybe.
It’s a bad deal. Council must press pause. All the assumptions underpinning this Plan need to be looked at again. Population growth, plant condition, commercial development. Shire Hall was expected to show their work on Thursday. It didn’t happen. Council must send them back. And pause the spending until it does.
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