Adrift

You are wrong, said Mayor Steve Ferguson. Occasionally shouting. Always indignant. He spent much of the past year telling Wellington residents, nervous waterworks customers, and this newspaper that we were wrong. Mayor Ferguson went so far as to take out a full-page ad to explain the various ways we were wrong.

Lately, however, Mayor Ferguson’s ship of certainty has been taking on water. His crew are bailing as fast as they can—but they must surely know their fate. It was never a seaworthy craft. Hewn from arrogance and hubris, it was never properly tested. Never given the scrutiny the enterprise demanded. It was never going to float.

Now they are adrift, and the story is falling apart—and among the questions remaining is will Mayor Ferguson go down with the ship?

The defining “fact” that Mayor Ferguson trumpeted and repeated for years was that there was a building boom descending upon the County—that the population of this place was about to double. And that Shire Hall had to rapidly expand its waterworks infrastructure to accommodate the influx of humanity set to overwhelm Wellington and Picton.

There were questions from the beginning. “Naysayers” pointed to flat population growth in Prince Edward County that had barely budged in over a century. Such trends don’t get dislodged easily—but Ferguson and his team believed this time was different.

Still, the naysayers pursued Ferguson and Shire Hall. Was the County suddenly about to see tracts of new homes sprouting from the farm fields around Wellington? It seemed farfetched then. More so, four years later.

But those early projections weren’t enough to support Shire Hall’s growing ambitions. At first, they said Wellington was expanding four times to 8,600 people. But this prediction wasn’t grandiose enough to support the dream of a super regional water plant and a 20 kilometre pipe to Picton.

So, the predictions had to expand. To justify $300 million in spending, this little village of 2,000 souls now needed waterworks to serve a mid-sized town of 14,500 people. Picton was exploding from 6,000 people to 32,500. And we had to get ready.

Lately, quietly, however, Shire Hall has reverted to a more modest expectation of growth—on its website at least.

Rather than doubling the County population, Shire Hall currently predicts the place might grow by 9,000 people over 30 years (accepting Watson and Associates’s mid-range scenario produced last fall. Watson, a consultancy, meanwhile, acknowledges in the same report that it is entirely possible the County population remains flat, in line with historical patterns).

It was a massive comedown. From 25,000 new folks to 9,000. There was no big announcement. No full-page ads acknowledging Shire Hall had wildly overestimated population growth. Not by a little, but by a lot.

Has Shire Hall revised its plans accordingly? Has it reconsidered spending $300 million in waterworks infrastructure for folks it knows aren’t coming? Has it changed course?

Sadly, no, it has not. Shire Hall continues to push forward. It will, next month, ask for Mayor Ferguson’s and Council’s approval to plow ahead with the design of the super regional water plant.

Forget that the arithmetic doesn’t work at a slower pace of growth. Forget that existing waterworks facilities in Wellington are sturdy and sufficient to grow and keep up with the reduced population growth expectations. Forget that the same consultants have warned Shire Hall the entire plan must be re-examined. Mayor Steve Ferguson and his crew intend to push further out to sea.

So the question must be asked again and again. Why is Shire Hall building infrastructure for 25,000 folks when it expects fewer than half this many are likely to arrive here in the next three decades?

And: Where is the predicted wave of population? Where is the building boom?

Shire Hall’s waterworks plan predicted that more than 200 homes would be being built each and every year by now. In Wellington alone. The County is currently on track to build 78 homes this year. In all of Prince Edward County. A national newspaper describes the County as a buyer’s market for resale homes.

Decades-old historical growth trends are reasserting themselves. Meanwhile, Mayor Ferguson and senior leadership are staring into the darkness, a long way from home.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca