Pencils down

Councillor Bill Roberts brought the data. “Prince Edward County is losing its working-age population,” said Roberts glumly, citing a report prepared by the Ontario East Economic Commission (OEEC). “Overall, Prince Edward County has the slowest growth in eastern Ontario, the weakest development and the weakest economic diversity of all municipalities in eastern Ontario.”

“We also have the lowest working age inflow of people—of entrepreneurs to create small and medium-sized businesses. We are the worst in eastern Ontario in this regard.”

Roberts presented the OEEC data as a wake-up call for his fellow council colleagues. To encourage action. In this instance— in this meeting—he hoped the facts would nudge his colleagues to approve a speculative housing subdivision in Picton.

It is certainly one way to read the data. A more obvious—and perhaps more rational— reading, however, suggests that this is the story of Prince Edward County. Indeed, it is the story of most rural municipalities in Eastern Ontario over the past century.

The OEEC’s diagnosis could have been made at many points in the County’s history. There are real and immutable forces that keep a population stuck in a narrow band of 25,000 folks for 140 years. Such a stubborn demographic feat has deep structural roots. It took decades to form.

The demographic phenomenon has resisted all previous attempts to alter its tabletop- flat trajectory. Breaking this pattern won’t come from policy choices from this council or the previous 20. It won’t be broken by Shire Hall. It isn’t how such tectonic plates shift.

Wishing isn’t policy. Indeed, it can be dangerous. It can make a bad situation worse.

RioCan Reit is an imperfect proxy for Canada’s residential real estate market with over 200 properties—shopping centres, offices and residential condos, apartments. However, as a public investment trust, it must report its finances and material changes in its business. As such, it can provide important insights into the thinking inside developers’ boardrooms.

Last week, RioCan announced it was laying off 10 per cent of its workforce.

CEO Jonathan Gitlin told the Globe and Mail that RioCan will not commence new construction in the near term. It will finish projects and developments, but isn’t starting anything new.

“We’ve halted the start of new construction and don’t intend to commence physical construction on mixed-use properties any time soon,” said Gitlin.

It is a crucial market signal. Developers have put their pencils down. They will sit on their pipeline of projects and developments. They will stand by to see which way the wind blows when Trump 2.0 takes hold next year. They will watch interest rates. They will monitor the impact of staunching immigration inflows. They will watch conflict overseas.

Developers aren’t committing to new projects. And their lenders won’t fund them.

So, why is Shire Hall still moving forward with infrastructure expansion? What does Council see that developers don’t?

Losing young people and failing to attract them has defined the County’s demographic history. We can lament it, and wish it weren’t so.

But the question Roberts doesn’t ask and must ask: If Prince Edward County’s population is flat or falling, as it has for 140 years, why is he supporting $300 million in waterworks expansion and an ever-expanding municipal budget? For whom will this infrastructure expansion serve? Who is being served by steadily making the County a place only the wealthy can live?

Is Council suggesting young people will suddenly flock to Prince Edward County because of a shiny new water pipe between Wellington and Picton? Will young families be wooed to relocate to the County because we are expanding waterworks capacity?

It is nonsense on its face. Councillor Roberts knows this. He can read the data.

Indeed, there was an opportunity to encourage housing a decade and a half ago. This newspaper has urged the streamlining of development processes many, many times since 2008. Shire Hall watched as neighbouring communities simply outcompeted Prince Edward County. As a result, our neighbours have seen more homes built every year since. More fees. More property taxes. More supply. More flexibility. And a more healthy new home market.

Council, meanwhile, squandered the market opportunity over the past 15 years, fearful that it would change Prince Edward County. Now it is scrambling to make up for its blunder—making up for lost time. It is likely to make things worse.

Council seems intent on making every aspect of life in Prince Edward County more expensive and out of reach for families and fixed-income households. Environmental sensitivity—once a dominant value—has been discarded in the headlong rush to correct the mistakes of the past 15 years.

Council can read the data. The window has closed. Pencils down. It’s over.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca