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Predictions from sommeliers
It’s often said that the LCBO is the largest buyer of alcohol in the world. But when you consider that Costco serves a far larger consumer base across the United States, and Tesco reaches many more people than Ontario’s 16 million residents, that claim begins to feel less certain.
Big or not, the LCBO’s sales data still functions as a reliable bellwether for broader drinking trends. To see how closely those trends align with what’s happening on the ground, I spoke with several sommeliers across Canada and beyond.
One of the clearest signals in the LCBO’s most recent report is a shift toward lighter wines. That change isn’t unique to Ontario. In Vancouver, Elisa Steak House wine director Franco Michienzi says the appetite for heavyweight reds is fading. “Big reds seem to be slowing down,” he notes, pointing to declines in Amarone, Zinfandel, Australian Shiraz, and California Cabernet.
Closer to home, Cam Fraser, wine buyer at Flame + Smith in Bloomfield, believes the trend has staying power. He’s leaning further into Prince Edward County wines, alongside bottles from regions long associated with freshness and restraint: the Loire, Beaujolais, Sicily, and northwestern Spain.
The LCBO data also showed increased sales of Italian and French wines, particularly reds. Michienzi has seen similar movement. “Italian wines and Bordeaux are gaining ground, while US wines have slipped from the top spot to third. At the same time, support for local BC wines remains strong.” The pull toward drinking local, it seems, extends well beyond Ontario’s borders.
Rising restaurant costs—everything from ingredients to labour—have also sharpened the focus on value. Wine lists increasingly need to reassure guests as much as they entice them. Lesser-known regions, long overlooked, are proving fertile ground for quality at approachable prices.
With Burgundy prices continuing to soar, Michienzi says he’s been searching for alternatives in lesser-known countries and regions. “Think Eastern Europe,” he suggests—wines that deliver character without the prestige pricing.
In Sydney, Australia, Sheila Richter, head sommelier at Bistecca, has deliberately expanded her selection of wines priced at $100 and under. “Beautiful diamonds in the rough at reachable prices,” she says. “Having a decent variety keeps the conversation open.”
Another unmistakable trend is the rise of low- and no-alcohol options. Richter has seen demand surge as drinkers moderate their intake and younger generations move further away from traditional wine culture. At Bistecca, the list now includes three non-alcoholic wines: a prosecco, a pinot grigio, and a red.
Michienzi offers several low- and no-alcohol wines by the glass at Elisa, while back in Bloomfield, Fraser pours a small selection of Proxies—what he calls “wine-adjacent” nonalcoholic beverages.
Fraser, who describes himself as a “postnatural” wine drinker these days said that, “Bloom is mostly off the rose as far as natural wine is concerned.” What began as a response to the dominance of big brands has, in some cases, revealed itself as more performance than substance.
Still, he’s encouraged by producers who have refined their practice, maintaining low intervention while delivering cleaner, more consistent wines. He mentioned one famous Sicilian producer, “Hell, even Frank Cornelissen sulphurs his wine now.”
Richter, a self-professed natural wine lover, agrees. The category, she says, was once crowded with faulty wines and gimmicky labels that briefly pulled younger drinkers into wine. Many of those have since been exposed as poorly made, fad-chasing bottles. “Natural wine for the sake of trend,” she says. What remains, however, is a clearer distinction between novelty and quality—and a more discerning audience ready to tell the difference.
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