Columnists
After Justin Trudeau
As this article was written on Monday—before the election results had come in—it looked like Canadians had bought themselves another minority government, probably a Liberal one.
What does that mean for Justin Trudeau? Is he near the end of his political shelf life? For those who want him to pack up and go, two minorities in a row should be enough to make their case. It was enough to send Lester Pearson home.
However, it is not easy for anyone to put together a majority government with the intense regional loyalties that are baked into our system of government. The strength of the Bloc Quebecois takes away some 32 seats from a pool of 338, making it the task of the party that wants a majority to win 170 of the remaining 306 seats. In addition, Alberta has 34 seats, almost all of which are Conservative from the get-go; so the Liberals effectively have to look to win 170 of the remaining 272 seats to attain their majority. Going into election day, they hold 157 seats. It’s not an insuperable task, but it makes you wonder whether achieving majority status in this election is too tough a standard to measure Mr. Trudeau by.
Mr. Trudeau was faced with the worst public health crisis in a century that required the exercise of government power to spend big and act quickly. He deserves credit for getting us this far through the pandemic. When he said he “had Canadians’ backs,” by and large he was true to his word.
Having said that, it is clear that the bloom is off Mr. Trudeau’s rose.
Canadians reluctantly voted for him this time not because they see him as an inspirational figure, but because he was driving the bus when the pandemic struck and it would be more chaotic to change drivers at this stage than to see it through with the present driver.
His ability to inspire Canadians has peaked. They have had their fill of his studied sincerity, which never seems to produce a direct answer to a direct question. He has suffered the consequences of failing to meet the high standards of his own rhetoric.
Mr. Trudeau has already led us for six years —a longer leadership career than many politicians. If he does not get his majority, it would be best for him to move on, with the thanks of a grateful—or at least relieved—nation.
Who will replace him? There is a history of the Liberal leadership switching between francophones and anglophones, but Mr. Trudeau, although elected in Quebec, is truly bilingual and bicultural, so that tradition doesn’t narrow the field. Nor does the recent history of Liberal leadership offer much inspiration: very few people will want to model their leadership aspirations on those of Stephane Dion or Michael Ignatieff.
The deciding factor might instead be gender. The Greens, the Conservatives and the NDP have all had female leaders: Kim Campbell was even prime minister for a short period. But not the Liberals. So the time for them to choose a female leader is long overdue.
Who are the likely candidates? Chrystia Freeland has been Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and Minister of Foreign Affairs. She has the resume and the experience to put her at the front of the line to take over. She was brought into politics as Mr. Trudeau’s prize catch. That might mean, however, that she is not a shoo-in.
And if we’re going to pivot to the female gender, why not pivot some more and go BIPOC—choose a black or indigenous person, or a person of colour. Why? Because its 2021. The Liberals could look deeper into their cabinet and pull out Maryam Monsef, the Minister for Women and Gender Equality; Bardish Chagger, the Minister for Diversity, Inclusion and Youth; Mary Ng, the Minister of International Trade; and Anita Anand, the Minister of Public Services and Procurement. Of that group, Ms. Anand, who took on the difficult vaccine procurement task and stabilized its political toxicity quite effectively, could make some serious noise with her candidacy.
Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott are both accomplished women who have fallen out with Justin Trudeau. However, I suspect Dr. Philpott has no desire to re-enter public life, and Ms. Wilson-Raybould is serving her revenge cold by publishing, and serializing, a memoir that accuses Mr. Trudeau of asking her to lie. So consider them, but count them out.
As a complete left field possibility, what happens if we continue to experience more climate catastrophe and at the same time the Green Party has blown itself to pieces over non-green issues? That would leave the Liberals in need of some Green leadership and Elizabeth May in need of a place to land. What would stop her from experiencing a Bob-Rae-style conversion to the Liberal party and taking a shot at the leadership? She, like Mr. Rae, is an experienced and well respected parliamentarian.
If he steps down, Mr. Trudeau can enjoy the spectacle of a leadership contest from the sidelines, while he can concentrate on raising the next generation of the Trudeau prime ministerial line.
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