Boiling frogs

Ever had the dream in which you suddenly found yourself naked in public—school, work, the bus? I don’t attach much weight to the significance of dreams, so the naked-in-public scenario doesn’t arouse much curiosity about a deeper meaning. But I will admit there is one bit I do puzzle over: How it happened. How might I have found myself in such a disoriented state?

I expect it is the same sensation Prince Edward County waterworks users are feeling this week—if they are paying any attention at all to the plans for Wellington’s pipes and plants. How did this happen? How did we get here? It is all so surreal and bewildering.

To recap: County waterworks comprises eight systems—six water systems and two wastewater treatment plants. It has an agreement with Belleville to supply water to Rossmore and Fenwood Gardens and another with Trenton to provide water to Carrying Place and Consecon. Peat’s Point serves 19 households from a municipal well. Ameliasburgh pulls its water from Roblin Lake and distributes it to about 60 homes. All these customers are massively subsidized by the waterworks users in Wellington and Picton—both of whose systems comprise a water plant (Picton drawing water from Picton Bay, Wellington pulling from a kilometre into Lake Ontario) and a sewage treatment facility. It is a convoluted collection of assets and obligations cobbled together in the wake of a cobbled-together amalgamation. It was a responsibility made more burdensome after the tragic mismanagement of the water supply in Walkerton, Ontario in 2000.

Collectively, County waterworks serve 5,902 customers, 4,504 of whom are residential households. These customers fund the entire system— operating costs, capital expenditures, repairs, financing—all of it. Meanwhile, the effective owners of this system are represented by fourteen people (Council)—most of whom have no stake or interest in these systems. Like most folks in rural communities, most council members maintain their own water wells and septic systems. Yet, they govern yours.

And as smarter folks have observed, “after a while, you can get used to anything.” Maybe.

For more than a decade, developers have been interested in building homes in the County. Our rules and policies have ushered these plans toward Wellington and Picton. For good reasons.

A couple of years ago, after years of footdragging and facing the uneasy prospect of perhaps hundreds of new homes in Wellington, the municipality commissioned an engineering study to assess the cost of expanding its waterworks to accommodate the new growth.

But before they could do this, they had to predict: How much growth? And when?

The village’s secondary plan—finalized just five years ago—contemplated three scenarios. The most wildly aggressive of these scenarios predicted growth of 1,413 new homes accommodating 3,080 new residents by 2031. The more modest prediction saw just 251 new homes by then. (The County’s history and growth trajectory suggest even the more humble prediction might prove to be ambitious.)

Inexplicably, however, in some dark and dusty corner of Shire Hall, it was decided that the village might grow four-fold—from 2,000- ish today to 8,600 people. And that the utility ought to be expanded to accommodate this imaginary new town.

It was and remains an utterly bizarre notion. Melting clocks surreal. Remember that the average rate of new home building in the entirety of Prince Edward County over the past two decades is just over 100 new homes per year. This premise anticipates explosive growth on par with Markham or Georgetown. There is simply no evidence to support this notion.

But despite the absurd premise, the County hired a consultant to determine how much it would cost to deliver water and treat the waste for these fictional 8,600 residents. The consultant concluded it would take $100 million— give or take a few million.

That should have stopped the discussion. Had we had proper governance of this utility, we, the users/funders/stakeholders, would have sent everyone back to the drawing board to start the exercise all over again. But that didn’t happen.

Instead, Council hired another yet consultant to figure out how to divvy up the $100 million cost. Under provincial rules, the cost of expanding services and infrastructure for new development must be accorded to these new homes by way of development charges. But this is where it gets tricky. The waterworks utility (not the municipality) must make a significant investment upfront—new water tank, trunk lines under the Millennium Trail, pumps etc. Then it must wait and hope the growth comes along to pay for it. The borrowing and carrying costs of these investments will be borne entirely by existing waterworks users. There is a huge risk to this proposition. Much of it is attached to the ridiculous premise that explosive growth is about to overtake this village.

Last week, the consultancy, Watson & Associates, presented its findings to a committee of Council. The absurd blossomed into full-on fantasy.

One glaring example: Nearly a third ($29.2 million) of the development charges anticipated to be collected to fund the $100 million waterworks expansion is targeted to come from new commercial development. To do this, the village will have to pull off two astonishing feats. First, it will need to expand the commercial sector exponentially, adding about 850,000 new square feet of space in the village. That’s about six new Costco stores. The second condition underlying this plan is that commercial development charges must rise from $5.53 per square foot (already the highest in our region) to $34.14 per s.f. A six-fold increase.

The obvious result of this preposterous notion is that no one will invest in Wellington’s commercial development ever again. Not a store, not an office, not a new restaurant or service. It would put a sudden and profound end to any commercial plans for the village. A boon perhaps for Bloomfield and Picton, but death to Wellington.

But what about the $30 million pegged to come from commercial development? It would still have to be found. And at the end of the day, there is only one payer—the users of this waterworks utility. Wellington councillor Mike Harper pointed to the flaw in this assumption last week—but he is just one voice among fourteen. He is one of a minority among those with a direct stake in these decisions.

Regular readers of this column know that I believe we need, and must encourage, residential development— that demand continues to vastly outpace the supply of homes. And there are consequences in failing to act. Until we restore some balance to our housing market, we are actively creating a community where only the wealthy may call home.

But growth can’t come at any cost. We need to get it right. Strapping a ludicrous deal on waterworks users and hoping for the best is a terrible plan. Built on a crazy premise.

Currently, Shire Hall is negotiating with three, perhaps four developers eager to build in Wellington, each of whom have signalled a willingness to front some of these costs. We could see this deal by the middle of next month. It affects every waterworks customer in Prince Edward County. It is your utility. You are on the hook. I urge every water user in the County to become involved in the plans to supersize Wellington.

The implications for waterworks users across the County are potentially ruinous to our community. We have left it to others long enough. How long we sit quietly in this pot of hot water is up to us.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca