Comment
Emergency cancelled
There is no urgency. There never was. The folks who said the County had to move quickly to massively expand waterworks for an “imminent” wave of population growth were wrong. Dangerously so. They would have blithely, arrogantly and confidently propelled County residents into a financial abyss. Many of those voices have moved on from municipal decisionmaking posts. We wish them well.
But it is clear now, more than ever, that there was no emergency. They were wrong. We have the proof. We have the numbers.
Let’s start with new homebuilding. In 2025, Prince Edward County is on track to issue 94 new homebuilding permits. If this pace holds to the end of the year, it will be the fourth year of steady decline— to the lowest level of homebuilding in over a decade.
From that precious moment in 2021—let’s call it peak irrationality—when big plans were set in motion, new homebuilding in Prince Edward County has fallen. Steadily. Remember, too, that these big plans were predicated on several hundred new homes being framed every year in Wellington and Picton. It didn’t happen.
A rainfall of excuses followed. “Developers were waiting for council.” “They were waiting for pipes.” They were waiting for a pumping station. Waiting for Venus to align with Mars. The developer was happy to go along with the story. It served his interest. But it wasn’t true. There was no emergency. Never was.
Yet another pattern emerges from the longterm trend of new homebuilding in Prince Edward County. It reveals a steady and predictable ebb and flow of new homebuilding since 1999. In some years, new homebuilding is up. Some years it is down. A clear and consistent pattern. A signal.
Shire Hall has issued new home permits in a range of about 90 to 160 homes per year for 26 years, averaging 124 new homes per year since 1999. There is simply no rational basis to suggest new homebuilding will break out of this range. As such, there is no foundation upon which to plan infrastructure expansion beyond 125 homes per year. Anything else is purely speculative and likely to be as wrong as the predictions made in 2020. It is gambling with ratepayers’ money. Always was.
More proof.
The County has a long runway of waterworks capacity in the system. According to data presented to Council last week, there is room in the waterworks system for 12 years of new homebuilding at the County’s 26-year-average build rate. Waterworks in Picton has capacity for 1,010 new housing units (apartments, townhomes, or single detached) in Picton. There is room in Wellington for 528 new homes. There are another 511 units previously approved but not yet built in Picton.
Taken together, it adds up to 2,050 units of new homebuilding runway. More than a decade of capacity is already in the existing system. Even if every one of these projects lifted off the ground in the next year, it will be decade or more before they are built-out. Likely much longer.
There can be no doubt, nor any debate, that the County is meeting its obligations to facilitate housing in Prince Edward County. It has an abundance of serviceable land and municipal servicing capacity to accommodate growth. It always did.
These facts buy Shire Hall time. It no longer needs to rush into decision-making. It doesn’t have to embark on novel but incomplete financing schemes. It doesn’t have to rely on wishful thinking.
Senior leadership at Shire Hall has signalled to Council, developers, the province, waterworks customers, and residents that the days of speculation and Hail Mary passes are over. Risky behaviour has been replaced by deliberate and steady analysis, data gathering and information gathering. To be followed by comprehensive planning, rock-solid financing and methodical execution.
None of it is radical. It’s not exciting. It won’t win awards. But infrastructure development shouldn’t set hearts racing. Done well, it should be boring, safe and dependable. Let’s hope.
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