Flood preparedness

High water level threat looms this spring

Mayor Steve Ferguson was blunt in his assessment of the possibility of flooding along the shoreline of the County this spring. “There is nothing any level of government can do fast enough to make a significant impact for the spring of 2020,” he said during an open house meeting at the Wellington and District Community Centre last Wednesday night. “The time for us to act is now, and emergency preparedness is the reason we are holding this open house. I want to keep the focus on preparation. We cannot and should not wait two months to see how high the water gets. If you live or operate a business in a vulnerable area, start getting ready now.” The open house was organized to provide residents with information about services available to help deal with or mitigate the effects of flooding should Lake Ontario levels rise to beyond what was experienced in 2019. In the worst-case scenario of a wet spring, high inflow from Lake Erie and reduced outflow to accommodate the Ottawa River swollen by the spring freshet, it is foreseeable that the level in Lake Ontario could rise to 30 centimetres above last year’s maximum. Such a rise could spell disaster for those unprepared to deal with it.

Close to 500 residents attended the open house, where a number of organizations— including Quinte Conservation Authority, Hastings Prince Edward Health, and various County departments—were on hand to offer information and services on how to prepare for the anticipated rise in the lake level. Mayor Ferguson opened the information session with a brief recap of his meeting earlier in the day with Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Ferguson and a number of other mayors of shoreline communities brought their concerns to Parliament Hill about flooding and the possibility of federal funding to deal with its effect. He described the Deputy PM as being “attentive, engaged and extremely interested.” He added, “We feel like we moved the ball down the field and we got some attention. We’ll see what comes of it.”

Resident Tom Finora pays close attention during the presentation by keynote speaker Sarah Delicate.

Sarah Delicate was the keynote speaker of the evening and provided an informative presentation on the impact of policy decisions and Lake Ontario outflows. She is the founder of United Shoreline: Ontario (USO), a volunteer organization whose objective is to engage governments and shoreline homeowners towards the protection from widespread lake surge flooding. Her presentation was well laid out and distilled complicated historical data and future predictions of lake level into a form that everyone could understand. A lot of information was provided in the 45-minute presentation, and it gave attendees a clear picture of how policy decisions regarding Lake Ontario outflows led to serious flooding in 2017 and 2019, and may do so again in 2020. She received a standing ovation at the end of her presentation, and a number of people came up to personally thank her.

Ms. Delicate said that the level in lake Ontario is controlled by the International Joint Commission, principally by outflow over the Moses-Saunders dam near Cornwall, through an international agreement between Canada and the US known as Plan 2014. It had the aim of improving the health of wetlands by providing a wider range of variability in lake level, with the provisos that Montreal would be protected from flooding along the St. Lawrence River, and that water outflow velocity would remain safe for ship traffic. Maintaining those protections in the face of increased spring runoff and high inflow from Lake Erie, coupled with high water volume from the Ottawa River— which empties into the St. Lawrence downstream of the dam—is what led to the flooding experienced in two of the past three years. Ms. Delicate stressed that Plan 2014 did not cause the flooding, and that it was actually an improvement over what the previous plan (Plan 1958DD) might have led to. “There is no magical plan that will stop all flooding, but we could do way better than we are doing right now,” she said. “We don’t have a high-water issue, we have a policy issue. When the Ottawa River floods Montreal, Lake Ontario outflows are reduced [by the IJC control board] and Lake Ontario rises rapidly. This is our biggest threat.” Even without the Ottawa River complication, simply allowing more outflow into the St. Lawrence is inadvisable. “Over a one-week span, a one-inch drop in Lake Ontario is an 11-inch rise in the St. Lawrence. So in an emergency situation we can’t say ‘Open the gate,’ because you will completely wash out Montreal,” she added.

Problems with Plan 2014 were noted well before its implementation. As early as 2008 there were warnings of “infrequent, catastrophic flooding that could cause more than $100 million in damage,” and there is in fact a condition in the agreement to provide “all possible relief” to shoreline owners—a condition that has not been honoured. Ms. Delicate wryly noted that far from being “infrequent”, flooding has occurred in two of the past three years, and we may be heading into yet another occurrence. United Shoreline: Ontario, working with similar groups based in New York, is asking the IJC to implement balanced policies that are fairer to property owners along the shore of Lake Ontario. USO is also asking conservation authorities on the Canadian side to streamline processes to enable homeowners to do what is necessary to protect their homes, and is asking the provincial government for adequate funding for municipal emergency flood response.

Ms. Delicate said that flooding that extends over months takes an enormous toll on shoreline residents. “What we know about flooding is that flood breaks people,” she said. “Residents are physically exhausted, they’re mentally depleted, financially strapped and emotionally raw.” She knows well the burden what dealing with flooding can add to a life that may already be beset by stress: her husband, Sandy, was diagnosed with Stage 4 brain cancer in early 2017, when the flooding began, and died in September of that year. Ms. Delicate does see some progress being made, however. The control board has been given permission to deviate from Plan 2014 by allowing additional flow over the Moses-Saunders dam. “I am optimistic that in the next six months there will be a revamping,” she said.

“As it stands right now, the IJC has zero concept of what this is costing shoreline municipalities, families, businesses. There’s no accounting for the environmental damage, the social damage, the local economic damage. Unfortunately there is very little we can do but to prepare for 2020.”

Resident Tom Finora attended the open house and was very impressed by Ms. Delicate’s presentation, as well as by the array of service providers present. “I thought it was very informative, but a little on the scary side,” he said. “We’re not in a situation where our house is likely to flood, but the high water causes a lot of damage to my shoreline. My basement sump never had any water in it until 2017, and in 2019 the pump was running constantly from May until mid-September. It’s kind of frightening because you’re constantly worried about power outages, all sorts of things. What was brought up here was how it affects your mental health. It really affected my wife, and we certainly don’t feel comfortable leaving the home.”

Mayor Ferguson said that the County has a budget of $300,000 to help deal with the prospect of flooding. A municipal management group comprising staff from the fire department, municipal operations, roads department and the CAO has been formed to address any issues that may arise. “We are going to do our part to make sure we provide as much as we can, but it’s also going to be up to the property owner to make sure they are protected,” he said. “It’s a tough situation, because right now we don’t know what necessarily is going to happen. It’s really important that neighbour help neighbour, whether it’s bagging sand or moving stuff or to help people in possible distress.” For more information on flooding prevention, please visit the County website thecounty. ca and click on the Flood Watch tab. For information about United Shoreline: Ontario, please visit unitedshorelineontario.ca.