Comment
Flushed away
When the book is written on the largest infrastructure expansion ever taken on in the County, last week’s audit committee meeting will surely mark the chapter where the plot fell apart. Fully and completely.
The committee learned last week that there is no basis to believe thousands of homes will be built here or that thousands of folks are moving here. There is no basis for believing that one million square feet of commercial development would ever be built in Wellington. The committee learned that there is no solid foundation for spending upwards of $100 million to upgrade the village’s waterworks. Or hundreds of millions more, extending it to Picton. (See story here.)
The frailty of this fiction was always right there in front of us. But we were told to have faith. To believe. Many did. But in the end, it took an impartial third-party consultant to demonstrate that the story was full of holes and that the internal logic made no sense.
It turns out there are no theories, trends, or patterns suggesting that Wellington is growing to 8,600 people or 14,000. Or at all. The vast proposed infrastructure spending isn’t based on what is likely to happen— but rather what could happen if magically 6,000 new residents showed up all at once to live in Wellington.
The plan was based neither on demand nor predicted demand, but rather on the amount of developable land in Wellington. That’s it. There is no more basis to the Wellington growth story than the village has land available upon which homes may one day be built. Whether it happens or not, no one knows. (See story here.)
The consultant spoke plainly, rather like a physician delivering bad news.
“If growth doesn’t happen as quickly as expected, but you have already designed and built the infrastructure—somebody has to pay,” said the Watson consultant in a low, serious tone.
Just like that, a wave of reality washed away the sandcastle of ambition and hubris upon which the Wellington waterworks plans were constructed.
Shire Hall is left in a bad place this morning. It has spent more than $40 million. It still has bigger, more expensive plans ready to roll out. And it only has existing water customers to pay for them.
But faith is a powerful force. Again and again, audit committee members tried to patch the plan back together. (See story here). The more they scrambled, the more tragic their efforts became.
“But what about the 8,000 units Shire Hall says are in an advanced state of planning?” Chair Hirsch urgently tried to salvage the argument for a wave of new homebuilding.
Watson’s Sean Michael Stephen didn’t sugarcoat his answer.
“Just because you have a certain number of applications doesn’t mean they will immediately move to building permit stage,” explained the consultant. “Those landowners and developers will phase those developments based upon their market feasibility assessment.”
In other words, developers will build homes only when they know they can sell them.
It seems obvious when said out loud by a trained professional, but it is a concept that has eluded the folks who have approved every step of the massive spending—without ever testing the fragility of the foundation. Without asking the questions. And demanding answers.
Many have been pointing to holes in this story for a long time. The population growth projections used to support these projects defied the County’s long historical pattern and everyday common sense. Residents know, too, that if Shire Hall builds infrastructure for population growth that doesn’t happen, they will be left with the bill.
The Watson consultant warned the costs could be significant enough to spill over onto the general County taxpayer.
Then, the finger-pointing started. ‘It wasn’t us.’ ‘We weren’t there.’ ‘It was the secondary plan.’ ‘We had no choice.’
It can’t hold. The explanation that Shire Hall was compelled to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on infrastructure for a developer because of lines drawn on a map was always ludicrous. It was never reasonable. It was never defensible.
Now, this is all they have left.
In time, the audit committee and Council will come to accept that these plans are now defunct. It may take some time to process. There will be some thrashing about. And likely more finger-pointing. But it is now clear that the story Shire Hall has been telling for five years doesn’t work.
So, it must stop. Council must pull back and calculate how much has been spent so far and who will pay for it.
The Watson consultant recommends a fresh examination of the entire project.
Shire Hall has ignored Wellington residents for over a year—it will be tougher for them to ignore the expert they pay to advise them.
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