Germany and renewables

In response to a reader’s query about the sources of information used in the preparation of my Comment in the Times this week (found here), I prepared the following list of references. I am making it broadly available for those interested learning more how I arrived at my viewpoint. It is offered, not as a comprehensive of fulsome examination of Germany’s experience with renewable energy but as the basis for my comment and opinion.

Rick Conroy, Editor

Intermittency
In terms of variability you will find in this document the output from wind and solar in 2014 on a daily basis on page 39.  The report is prepared each year by Franhofer ISE a solar research institute in that country.

As you will see the maximum daily output (wind and solar) in 2014 was .212 TWh (Terawatt hours) the minimal was .006 TWh—thus about two percent. So put another way—as much as 98 per cent of the capacity of it’s wind and solar fleet is unavailable on any given day. Note also that the chart has been squished vertically—minimizing the appearance of magnitude of the variability.

Link: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/downloads-englisch/pdf-files-englisch/data-nivc-/electricity-production-from-solar-and-wind-in-germany-2014.pdf

Germany missing its CO2 targets
This has been widely publicized. Below is just one reference.

Germany’s flagship green energy policy is in tatters, according to a new report by the consultancy firm McKinsey which says many of its goals are “no longer realistic”. Angela Merkel’s government has committed to cut CO2 emissions by 40 per cent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. To achieve that, McKinsey argues, Germany would have to cut emissions by an average of 3.5 per cent a year. But so far, they have only fallen at an average of 0.7 per cent a year, leaving Germany so far behind it would have to increase emissions cuts by a factor of five to reach its target on time. “Despite the massive expansion of renewable energies, achieving the key objectives of the energy revolution in Germany by 2020 is no longer realistic” says the report. —Justin Huggler in Berlin, The Daily Telegraph, 2 September 2014

The enduring role of coal in Germany
German Coal Fired Power Stations Due to Open By 2020

Source: BDEW, the German Energy Producers Association.
http://www.bdew.de/internet.nsf/id/57AD1C19572834CAC1257B47002D1537/$file/130408_BDEW-Kraftwerksliste-final.pdf

Supply and demand
Here is a good fact sheet portraying Germany’s electricity production mix.

The key thing to remember when looking at supply mix in electricity is that it aggregates the data over a period of time (which would be okay if we could store the electricity we produce–but we can’t, not on a utility scale). So while the charts suggest wind and solar energy gaining a larger share of the electricity mix it doesn’t explain that as much as 98 per cent of its capacity may not be available on any given day as noted above.

If you go further into the data sheet you will find domestic demand. There you will note that in-country demand roughly equals the output of coal (lignite and hard), nuclear and gas. Therefore Germany’s electricity needs are covered without wind and solar energy.

Like Ontario, Germany exports its electricity—effectively, and I would suggest, necessarily muddling the overall picture.
Link: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

Other local sources
Each of the links below offers insight on how the conversation on the political level is quite different than the one on the ground.

One is from Deutche Welle on Germany’s risk of missing its CO2 targets.
http://www.dw.com/en/german-co2-emissions-targets-at-risk/a-18862708

This next story offers illuminating quotes from a senior government official
http://www.thelocal.de/20141111/minister-shutting-down-coal-plants-unrealistic