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Global Wine Number
Recently, the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) released its first estimates of global wine production for 2025. Yes, there’s a three per cent bump from the remarkably low 2024 harvest—but before anyone pops a cork, keep in mind we’re still sitting seven per cent below the five-year average. The OIV summed it up neatly: “climatic variability remained the dominant factor shaping global wine production in 2025.” In other words, the weather’s still in charge, and it’s not exactly behaving. The usual heavy hitters remain on top—Italy, France, Spain, the USA and Australia— but even they aren’t immune to what’s happening in the vineyards.
Now, most people have heard by now that global wine consumption is dropping. So at first glance, lower production might look like nature lending the industry a helping hand, trimming supply to meet demand. And maybe there’s a little truth to that. But here’s the bigger story: yields are dropping because farming is getting harder. Climatic swings, unpredictable winters, droughts, floods—you name it. And when farming gets harder, it gets more expensive. Fewer grapes plus higher costs equates to pricier bottles. Over time, that only pushes younger drinkers—already at historic lows—even further away from wine.
There’s no shortage of theories about why young people aren’t buying wine. Some say sweet drinks reign supreme. Just look at soda consumption. Then add ready-to-drink cocktails, craft beers, and seltzers—all neatly packaged, aggressively marketed, and tailor- made for the 20- to 30-somethings. And of course, cannabis is right there in the mix too, in forms you can smoke, sip, or slip into a sparkling drink. Health concerns aren’t helping either. Awareness around alcohol is higher than ever. The “sober curious” movement has real momentum, and in some circles, ordering wine might even earn you a side-eye for being “uncool.”
And then there’s price. Wine isn’t cheap— not real wine, anyway. Good, small-lot, handcrafted bottles will never be bargain-bin items, especially with shrinking yields. But the shelves are full of cheap wines—the labmade, market-tested, hologram-labelled, sweet-as-soda stuff that’s engineered to snag the younger drinker. Just don’t expect those bottles to appear on wine lists in most restaurants. And when young people head out for a night in Wellington or Picton and see the price of a decent glass, many choose something else—or nothing at all. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that so many local wineries are up for sale. What’s harder to explain is why new ones keep appearing—and at such ambitious sizes. It’s a real noodle-scratcher.
But here’s the important part: if we want a thriving rural economy—if we want vineyards, restaurants, farms, and small businesses to make it through the next decade—we all have a role to play. As we roll into the holiday season, keep your elbows up. Bring friends and family to local tasting rooms. Choose County bottles when you’re stocking the cupboard. Pour local when people visit—and send them home with something that actually comes from this place. Because this region isn’t just making wine. It’s making identity. And that’s worth defending.
As the festive season gets ramped up, if there are questions you have about a special bottle or what to bring to a party or what to pair with your holiday meal, I’d love to hear from you for an upcoming article.
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