Letters
Growth and water
Borrowing the ‘myth-fact’ format of the County’s recent full-page ad in the Times and Gazette, today’s greatest myth is that we can still plan 1970’s style developments – subdivisions requiring multiple vehicles to get around, built to non-green standards, using subsidized grid electricity, and heated by natural gas. The facts are laid out in a recent publication by James Hanson, the NASA scientist who, in 1988, gave testimony on climate change to the U.S. Congress. We will cross the 1.5°C global heating threshold next year – temporarily, due to El Nino, but still a salutary warning; the earth’s energy imbalance (heat in minus heat out) will double in the next 25 years (like turning up the heat from medium to high); and greenhouse gas heating is increasing by 0.27°C per decade so we will be bumping up against 2°C heating in 20 years’ time – something climate scientists see as potentially catastrophic. Myth then becomes tragedy when we have carnival barkers like Doug Ford in charge, urging us ever onward, over the cliff.
But here in the County, staff is to be applauded for an outstanding report on growth – the 2023 Watson report. It predicts a population increase of 8,730 over the next 20 years – 43% in Picton, an increase of 3,796. However, these were not the numbers on display at recent Public Consultations relating to water and wastewater infrastructure. At the Picton Consultation, at the old Town Hall, Picton’s growth, over the next 20 years, was given as 11,745 – three times higher. And at the Bloomfield Public Consultation it had become 26,804 by ‘buildout’ (in 2060) – seven times higher.
Digging a bit deeper using the County’s Planning Applications dashboard – another excellent piece of work by the County – the picture becomes clearer. Over 90% of planned growth is in just seven subdivisions: three in Wellington and four in Picton. Many have been on the books for years and most have not started – for good reason. Costs are high, labour is in short supply, and buyers cannot afford today’s high mortgage rates. The Watson report concludes it will take years for these projects to roll out in multiple phases.
So why is the County so insistent on the need for more than a hundred million dollars of new water and wastewater investment? And how to explain the difference in numbers – thousands of uncounted homes in Picton requiring vast amounts of water to be pumped all the way from Wellington, under the Millennium Trail, and vast new wastewater treatment facilities. If you were to guess the reason might be Base 31, I certainly would not disagree with you.
The full title of the Watson Report is, “2023 Development Charges Background Study”. It was commissioned in response to yet another of Premier Ford’s seemingly endless giveaways to developers – six new Provincial laws that reduce developers’ costs by loading them onto taxpayers’ shoulders. To quote, “costs over the forecast periods will total $89.0 million. $76.5 million of these will need to be funded by other County funding sources such as taxes”. This, of course, is for anticipated growth not for seven times more growth in Picton. How much will this increase our taxes and what are the risks? Unless we get a Watson Report update, my guess is that nobody really knows.
It all leaves a bit of a sour taste of ‘democracy deficit’. I attended many of last year’s election debates and I do not recall a single councilor – or Mayor Ferguson – campaigning for this kind of growth. There is simply no voter mandate for what is being proposed. Yet Council seems to be fully on side and, well, we are where we are!
Returning to my opening, Base 31 could become a dream Green development with geothermal heating, new and much cheaper design concepts, lots or rental and cooperative housing, a walkable community with public transport to Picton’s downtown – a fine example of modern urban planning. Or it could be Vaughan or Mississauga. We simply do not know. And while I cannot speak for you, I, for one, would appreciate some assurances before I am asked to gift my contribution to a new hundred million dollar water and wastewater system. It is high time for some basic explanations about development in Picton and how it affects the rest of the County.
Don Wilford
The available public evidence seems to suggest these three things:
1) The agenda for development in the County is being set by developers, not taxpayers / residents; and
2) County Staff appears to have bought into the sales pitches of the developers, and disregarded any evidence that is contrary to the developers’ agenda; and
3) County Council (including the Mayor) is allowing Staff to dictate what happens, and when, and who pays.
Although there is lots of talk of Development Charges being used to pay for the ever-increasing spending by Staff, driven by the developer agendas, the reality is that taxpayers are actually paying.
If you look carefully at the publicly-available Audited Financial Statements of the County, it is plain that spending over the past 6 years is higher than both inflation and/or population growth rates.
That spending has been funded by taxes, borrowing and grants.
The grants are the smaller of these sources.
And the borrowing has been from the Province of Ontario, at the Ontario Infrastructure and Lands Corporation’s lending rates, which are designed to more than cover the Province’s costs of borrowing that money themselves. This amounts to “uploading revenue” to the Province’s coffers, even as there is often weeping and gnashing of teeth as “downloading expenses” from the Province to the Municipality.
This borrowing is increasing the spend (millions per year in interest) and this is, in turn, being paid for by County taxpayers. So, in addition to fuelling the growth in spend, indirectly they are fattening the coffers of the Province (well over and above any income taxes).
Most County taxpayers, and perhaps even Council members, may not realise these things.
However, if they are aware, and they do not object, then the old saying about “people getting the government they deserve” is indeed fulfilled.
The development agenda is a fully-loaded train rolling at top speed now, with County Staff in the driving seat and the developers advising them on the journey ahead.
The only chance for the agenda to be brought into alignment with taxpayer priorities, is for Council to start saying “no!” and keep saying “no!” until everyone sees what is really happening, and then concludes that the roadmap is indeed what County residents and taxpayers want. Slow the train, maybe even stop the train, and examine the tracks ahead before proceeding.
The developers likely sense they have a narrowing window of time before the next municipal election, which is now about 18 months away.
But with the election turnouts in the County being so low (47% in the 2022 election that produced this Mayor and Council), it seems unlikely the train can be stopped.
We could judge the probability of this by the reaction, perhaps to this letter and comment.
Thoughts / comments most welcome.