In the dark

We do a poor job of gathering and using market data in Prince Edward County. This has to do, in part, with the relative size of the market and the newness of our concerted pursuit of the tourism and visitor economy. Notwithstanding the causes, a lack of data leads us to make mistakes and miss opportunities.

For a long time, discussion of a visitor-driven economy wasn’t permitted in polite company. Shire Hall, in particular, was in denial about where its opportunities lay. The economy that dare not speak its name.

That began to change about 15 years ago. Slowly, at first. But lately, it has begun picking up steam. Today, it is a stretch, bordering on silly, to suggest that the County’s primary economic growth opportunity exists anywhere other than serving visitors (though vestiges remain).

One need only witness how hard Belleville is working to lure the folks Prince Edward County has attracted to its doorstep to see the value of the economic gift bestowed upon this community.

But without the tools—or the inclination—to track and measure our growing economy, we risk losing investment and the creation of bad policy.

Most investors need market information and a good understanding of fundamentals and trends to inform their decision-making. All but the most daring of capital will pass on a market without data to support their investment thesis.

It is a problem for local government, too. Council too often makes policies and takes actions blindfolded—without the benefit of data to help them understand the market and the trends shaping it.

Too often, in absence of this context, council looks to mirror rules and practices created in big cities. More problematically, a poor understanding of the drivers of the County economy can lead to the creation of barriers—perhaps accidentally— with potentially devastating effect.

Let’s look at one aspect of the County’s visitor economy. Prince Edward County is an increasingly popular destination for weddings. We don’t know how many. But there is plenty of evidence that it is a big number and is growing rapidly. A variety of services, from tours to flowers and accommodation providers is emerging to serve this market segment.

In Canada, the wedding business is huge. Weddingbells magazine reports that Canadians will spend $5 billion on weddings in 2016. An estimated 46 per cent will be spent in Ontario—a $2.3-billion industry. On average, couples spend $30,717 on their wedding and host 129 guests.

Assuming 100 couples get married in the County this year, that works out to a $3 million opportunity plus at least 65 room nights. Plus meals. Plus shopping. Plus. Plus. Plus.

The actual number weddings in the County is certainly much higher. Two venues in Wellington account for nearly 100 between them. What if the actual number is closer to 500 or 1,000? By any reasonable guess, it seems likely the wedding business in the County may well produce an economic impact greater than $10 million each year.

If council understood this, would it tread a bit more carefully when tinkering with bylaws that could disrupt or diminish the sector? It isn’t clear.

As in other aspect of the County’s economy, the wedding business has grown in spite of Shire Hall’s efforts rather than because of it. There is no mention of the wedding sector in the 119 pages of the Community and Economic Development Strategic Plan produced two years ago. A search of the County’s website produces one result— instructions on how to book a park for wedding photos.

It is one thing to overlook or ignore an important driver of your economy. It is quite another to actively toss wrenches into the gears.

Last month, a committee of council approved new noise restrictions—targetting music that can be heard outdoors. The initiative was prompted by Jamie Forrester, the Athol councillor who wants County residents to “enjoy life the way they used to.” Earlier this year, he asked County staff to look at tightening the rules.

Last month, staff suggested shutting down outdoor music—as well as indoor music if it can be heard outdoors— at 11 p.m. from 2 a.m. as permitted currently.

Sensing that shutting down music at 11 p.m. might not go over so well, council agreed to soften the noise restriction to midnight.

To be clear, council wasn’t responding to a wave of complaints or objections. There were no deputations or anyone in the gallery supporting tighter restrictions. Neither was information provided about how such a move would impact any aspect of the County’s economy.

Only the Athol councillor spoke in favour of tighter rules. Other councillors worried about being seen as “no fun.” No one asked about the impact of such a decision on the wedding business in Prince Edward County.

Nevertheless, the new noise restrictions passed and may soon be written into a bylaw. No public meetings. No consultation. No measure of impact. Nothing.

Remember, too, that noise bylaws, and perhaps soon a new special events bylaw, are enforced only when someone registers a complaint. In attempting to solve a problem that hasn’t been shown to exist, council has merely handed some folks a fresh new stick with which to swing at their neighbours.

It is neither an imaginative nor a particularly helpful way to craft public policy. That is the hazard when you make up rules by the seat of your pants.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca