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Message erosion
I fear we are losing the thread. The messaging, particularly from the province, is getting a bit fuzzy and confusing. Officials, particularly those at Queen’s Park, need to get in front of this quickly. Or risk losing the herd. The images from Trinity Bellwoods Park on the weekend may be a foreshadowing of some troublesome months ahead.
Premier Doug Ford has won praise from many corners for his handling of the pandemic. So far. He has appeared humble. Sober. He dropped the partisan wrangling with Ottawa. And he has leaned effectively on public health expertise.
It worked well in the first weeks. He soothed and reassured a frightened people that “together” we would get through this pandemic. But to do this we had to stay home for a few weeks. “To flatten the curve.” It was a strong, clear message with a measurable goal.
It worked. More or less. We could see each week that the rate of new infections was slowing and then turning down. We had collectively flattened the curve.
But then what?
As weeks have stretched into months it has became clearer that shutting down vast swaths of the economy and compelling folks to isolate in their homes indefinitely was untenable. So, with a vaccine likely months, years or perhaps many years away, Ontario prepared to re-open.
I must underscore the immense challenge put before our leaders. They are working with information that continues to change (and sometimes contradicts earlier advice) as we, as a species, learn more about this virus. Meanwhile, economists point to the horrific carnage to jobs and business in the wake of the pandemic. And the eye-watering debt we are accumulating.
Our leaders are feeling their way through the fog, just as we are. And, so far, both our federal and provincial heads have comported themselves well. Their first job, which is ensuring the message is clear, coherent and achievable, is proving tricky to do as we re-open.
I have no expertise, experience nor any context to assess the epidemiology of this virus or the correctness of our response. I have no good means to sort through the blizzard of reports that purport to point a safe way forward.
That said, a great many smart folks suggest the way to open safely and effectively is by testing for the disease in large numbers. Only in this way, will they be able to isolate and manage outbreaks as they occur.
But while the province has increased testing capacity to 20,000 per day, Ontario has so far struggled to conduct even fraction of this number. For over a week now, the province has failed to meet its benchmark of 16,000 tests per day.
Ford says he is dissatisfied with the rate of testing and is making it his primary focus to get these numbers up. Yet, day after day, he comes out to tell us it isn’t getting better. This cannot continue. The message will consume him.
On Sunday, Doug Ford urged Ontario residents— even if they are asymptomatic—to get tested. It was a new message. And one the testing folks weren’t ready for. As of Monday, unless you had symptoms, been close to someone with the virus, or older than 70, you still could not get a COVID-19 test in our region. (And rightly so, as the priority was, and remains, those most vulnerable.)
But we must pivot quickly. To the extent that testing is the key to opening the economy—and that time is of the essence—then the province must get on with scaling up testing in a big way. In every church basement, community centre or town hall. In every pharmacy and library. The province has had three months to ramp up testing. The excuses are getting thin.
Let us also consider employing the vast and sophisticated network of private and commercial labs instead of relying solely on government labs. We already depend on these organizations—their capacity, their distribution networks, and efficiency—for the vast bulk of our diagnostic testing. Let’s tap university and research labs. Let’s put them to work solving this problem.
We—and mostly Doug Ford—can no longer afford to dither on this.
His message is that more testing is necessary to ease the lockdown. It is now up to the province’s health apparatus to get this done. And done quickly. If another week goes by without a meaningful increase in the rate of testing, folks will tune out.
The more it appears that the Premier is unable to affect or orient the system to enable the easing of the lockdown, the more folks are likely to take risk mitigation into their own hands. And when this influence is lost, it will be hard to pull these folks back—particularly as more folks conclude that COVID-19 isn’t a meaningful threat to them.
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