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Missing signals
As of Monday, there were 256 active cases of COVID-19 in the Hastings Prince Edward Public Health Unit (HPEPHU) catchment area, including Prince Edward County. It’s a big number—the biggest we’ve seen in this region. Ten of the current cases were in hospital on Monday and four were in ICU.
About 47 per cent, approaching half, of active cases are among vaccinated folks.
The Times tried to find out the vaccination status of those currently in hospital with Covid. HPEPHU refused to provide it. To protect privacy.
This is a problem.
Let me explain. According to the federal government’s Covid site, “your vaccination status only changes your risk of catching COVID-19 and becoming ill. It doesn’t change your risk of exposure to the virus out in the community.”
The latter part of this message—that the risk of exposure remains—seems borne out in the data from HPEPHU.
The more important bit of the Government of Canada message—that your vaccination status changes your risk of catching COVID-19 and becoming ill—cannot be tested in this community. Or verified. HPEPHU won’t give you this information.
We should insist upon it. Here’s why. The proportion of the sick who are vaccinated and unvaccinated—as measured by hospitalizations— contains critical public information. If the data were consistent with the province and other jurisdictions, it would show that most of the folks in the hospital due to the virus are unvaccinated.
It would show that vaccinations are working to prevent serious illness. This, in turn, would signal to the 30,000 not-yet-vaccinated folks in this region the urgency of getting the jab to avoid serious harm to themselves and their families and friends.
If, however, the vaccination status of those hospitalized mirrors cases—that is, just under half of those in hopsital with Covid are vaccinated—it may signal the need to do more to physically limit contact. It will be harder to ensure widespread compliance with new restrictions without it.
The worst thing the Health Unit can do is keep this data to itself. It is hard to see how someone’s privacy is violated by disclosing this data. There are no names, no identifying markers. Merely the vaccination status of the folks in hospital and ICU in our region. Furthermore, it was a choice to be vaccinated or not. It is not clear how far we should be prepared to go to protect the privacy of those whose personal decisions impact so many others—especially health care workers. The trade-off seems wrong.
Fortunately, the Ontario Science Table compiles and presents this data on a province-wide basis. As illustrated on the next page, cases have been rising in recent weeks—much of it in areas that escaped the initial waves of the virus. Places like Kingston, Brant County, Sault Ste. Marie and Prince Edward County. Mostly it shows that cases among unvaccinated folks in Ontario are rising. Yet, there is a clear signal that the vaccinated are being protected from serious illness that would put them in hospital and the ICU.
Isn’t the province-wide evidence enough? No. This is the information we need in Hastings and Prince Edward County. If the case numbers continue to rise, pressure will build to impose fresh constraints on our interaction in public places—rinks, churches, theatres and such.
These decisions ought to be informed by comparative risk to the vaccinated and unvaccinated.
In an era of abundant false information and halfbaked theories available just a few keystrokes away, facts are the only antidote. In the absence of data, folks are liable to validate the wildest notions. In the absence of data, the public health apparatus become frighteningly wobbly. Mistrust must not be permitted a foothold.
Public trust is a frail thing. Faith and inertia tend to hold it together. But it can fall apart. Quickly. Suddenly. When Public Health officials choose to withhold critical data, it arms the the selectively informed, the obstinate and the conspiracy mongers. Worse, it makes it harder to persuade ordinary folks to comply with the next measure it recommends.
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