Opportunity, wasted

Questions linger after Wellington waterworks meeting

It was billed as an opportunity for residents and waterworks users to “refamiliarize” themselves with the large-scale infrastructure projects currently underway in Wellington and the implications for the future of this village.

“We’ve assembled the trained experts and senior staff so everybody understands this complicated system,” said Mayor Steve Ferguson, “ and to understand that everyone is doing their best.”

More than 500 people filled the Highline Hall in Wellington last Thursday. Most of them don’t believe the village is growing by four times. Most don’t want anything like this transformation to happen to their village. So before the meeting began, there was already a mismatch of expectations.

Mayor Ferguson, assembled senior staff and consultants, explained that waterworks in the County are complicated and expensive and that neither Wellington nor Picton has sufficient capacity to accommodate growth.

Chief Administrative Officer Marcia Wallace told the crowd that there is no additional capacity in the system in Wellington, but that she and her team have a plan to enable growth—required by the province— and that the math works.

“We have an opportunity to optimize the moment we are in,” said Wallace.

She acknowledged that while there had been numerous points of discussion, she conceded that collectively, Shire Hall could do a better job of communicating.

“This meeting is meant to slow down and explain how we got here,” said Wallace.

THE OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity, as Shire Hall sees it, is that developers are keen to build in Wellington and Picton. Picton’s water plant is old and costly. Wellington has a great source of clean, fresh water. Wouldn’t it be great if we could build big new plants and pipes to serve Picton, Bloomfield and Wellington? It would solve a lot of problems on paper.

Except there are only 6,000 waterworks users in Prince Edward County. There are too few to fund the $170 to $200 million it will take to make this happen. But hang on, what if we could get developers to pay for most of the new infrastructure? It is from this notion Shire Hall has embarked on this bold and expensive journey. So far, all it has is $4 million from one developer.

The promise, however, is “if we build it, they will come”. And they will pay.

Few of the folks in the hall last week were buying this story. Instead, they fear they will be stuck with funding this massive infrastructure without any benefit to them.

POPULATION PREDICTIONS
They don’t believe Wellington is growing from 2,100 people to 8,600. They don’t believe developers will build one million square feet of commercial space, and they don’t believe the developer has the community’s interest at heart.

Jamie Cook is a director at Watson and Company. He has deep experience in assessing demographics, planning and municipal finance. He told the gathering that it’s not easy projecting population growth, but that his firm uses a comprehensive set of tools that include measuring the impact of immigration growth, the outward migration from the big cities and factors such as work-from-home and hybrid work trends. He said these patterns, combined with an uptick in economic activity in rural Ontario, point to a positive outlook in population growth in this region.

Many weren’t satisfied with the answer. They pointed to historical population growth that has hovered at just over zero for sixty years.

“It is dangerous to look at projections that don’t align with historical trends,” noted Gary Mooney, an actuary by profession. “Why didn’t these factors drive growth in the past? I just don’t believe the growth projections.”

Carol Mannheim moved to Wellington from Atlanta. She, too, sees challenges to population growth.

“I don’t see the things that would attract people,” said Mannheim, “We don’t have transit, we don’t have doctors, and we don’t have food delivery. These are real impediments for folks moving here and staying here.”

Cook encouraged the gathering to focus on a broader time frame. Then he added that neither he nor anyone else has a crystal ball.

“In a few years, we will review the projections and course correct,” said Cook.

But a course correction—that is, revising population projections—will come too late for these residents. This is because Council has approved a Master Servicing Plan, which calls for $75 million to be spent as the first phase of Wellington’s waterworks reconstruction.

Dorothy Bothwell says Council must pause. The former council member from Grimsby lives in Wellington on the Lake.

“Before you build a Cadillac,” urged Bothwell, “you must reassess. Is this what we need? There is no guarantee of homes. Press pause. Commit to engage with the community.”

TOUGH TONE
John Caliendo used his moment at the microphone to express his disappointment in an ad the County ran recently in the Times— purporting to correct myths with reality.

“That was so insulting, when a simple FAQ would have sufficed,” said Caliendo. “But that was so arrogant.”

He wasn’t the only one in the room feeling residents were being talked down to.

“I’ve had a brain hemorrhage—but I’m not stupid,” said Harvey Bradshaw, a Wellington on the Lake resident. “The attitude from Shire Hall is unacceptable. You want respect— but respect goes both ways.”

IMPLAUSIBLE NUMBERS
Evan Nash, principal of Nash’s Home Hardware, said he doesn’t believe that nearly one million square feet of commercial space will be developed in Wellington on any recognizable timeline. This matters because $30 million of the cost to build the village’s waterworks infrastructure depends upon this development to fund it. If not, the cost will fall to 6,000 existing waterworks users across the County.

“Do we have to fund our own peer review?” asked Nash of the Watson’s representative. “Should I divert fundraising in my store to pay for a peer review of your findings?”

Jamie Cook acknowledged he hadn’t prepared the report Wellington DC Charges study that drew those conclusions, but had reviewed it.

“Nothing stands out as unreasonable given the projected population growth,” said Cook.

CAO Wallace added that the numbers and assumptions were discussed at council and that, while there were some questions and some reservations at the time, ultimately Council approved the plan.

PLAN B?
Many of the folks making their way to the microphone wanted to know who would pay if developers don’t build in the near or mid-term future.

“What is your Plan B?” asked John Whyte, who lives under the new water tower.

The County’s director of finance, Amanda Carter, responded, saying the County has $4 million in Letters of Credit from the developer. Phase 1 of the Master Servicing Plan commits the County to spending $75 million by next year.

Joanna Wright wanted to know if it was too late to turn back.

“Are we past the point of no return,” asked Wright. “Is this a done deal?”

Peter Moyer assured Wright there was still time for dialogue.