Comment
Pencils down
Councillor Bill Roberts brought the data. “Prince Edward County is losing its working-age population,” said Roberts glumly, citing a report prepared by the Ontario East Economic Commission (OEEC). “Overall, Prince Edward County has the slowest growth in eastern Ontario, the weakest development and the weakest economic diversity of all municipalities in eastern Ontario.”
“We also have the lowest working age inflow of people—of entrepreneurs to create small and medium-sized businesses. We are the worst in eastern Ontario in this regard.”
Roberts presented the OEEC data as a wake-up call for his fellow council colleagues. To encourage action. In this instance— in this meeting—he hoped the facts would nudge his colleagues to approve a speculative housing subdivision in Picton.
It is certainly one way to read the data. A more obvious—and perhaps more rational— reading, however, suggests that this is the story of Prince Edward County. Indeed, it is the story of most rural municipalities in Eastern Ontario over the past century.
The OEEC’s diagnosis could have been made at many points in the County’s history. There are real and immutable forces that keep a population stuck in a narrow band of 25,000 folks for 140 years. Such a stubborn demographic feat has deep structural roots. It took decades to form.
The demographic phenomenon has resisted all previous attempts to alter its tabletop- flat trajectory. Breaking this pattern won’t come from policy choices from this council or the previous 20. It won’t be broken by Shire Hall. It isn’t how such tectonic plates shift.
Wishing isn’t policy. Indeed, it can be dangerous. It can make a bad situation worse.
RioCan Reit is an imperfect proxy for Canada’s residential real estate market with over 200 properties—shopping centres, offices and residential condos, apartments. However, as a public investment trust, it must report its finances and material changes in its business. As such, it can provide important insights into the thinking inside developers’ boardrooms.
Last week, RioCan announced it was laying off 10 per cent of its workforce.
CEO Jonathan Gitlin told the Globe and Mail that RioCan will not commence new construction in the near term. It will finish projects and developments, but isn’t starting anything new.
“We’ve halted the start of new construction and don’t intend to commence physical construction on mixed-use properties any time soon,” said Gitlin.
It is a crucial market signal. Developers have put their pencils down. They will sit on their pipeline of projects and developments. They will stand by to see which way the wind blows when Trump 2.0 takes hold next year. They will watch interest rates. They will monitor the impact of staunching immigration inflows. They will watch conflict overseas.
Developers aren’t committing to new projects. And their lenders won’t fund them.
So, why is Shire Hall still moving forward with infrastructure expansion? What does Council see that developers don’t?
Losing young people and failing to attract them has defined the County’s demographic history. We can lament it, and wish it weren’t so.
But the question Roberts doesn’t ask and must ask: If Prince Edward County’s population is flat or falling, as it has for 140 years, why is he supporting $300 million in waterworks expansion and an ever-expanding municipal budget? For whom will this infrastructure expansion serve? Who is being served by steadily making the County a place only the wealthy can live?
Is Council suggesting young people will suddenly flock to Prince Edward County because of a shiny new water pipe between Wellington and Picton? Will young families be wooed to relocate to the County because we are expanding waterworks capacity?
It is nonsense on its face. Councillor Roberts knows this. He can read the data.
Indeed, there was an opportunity to encourage housing a decade and a half ago. This newspaper has urged the streamlining of development processes many, many times since 2008. Shire Hall watched as neighbouring communities simply outcompeted Prince Edward County. As a result, our neighbours have seen more homes built every year since. More fees. More property taxes. More supply. More flexibility. And a more healthy new home market.
Council, meanwhile, squandered the market opportunity over the past 15 years, fearful that it would change Prince Edward County. Now it is scrambling to make up for its blunder—making up for lost time. It is likely to make things worse.
Council seems intent on making every aspect of life in Prince Edward County more expensive and out of reach for families and fixed-income households. Environmental sensitivity—once a dominant value—has been discarded in the headlong rush to correct the mistakes of the past 15 years.
Council can read the data. The window has closed. Pencils down. It’s over.
In order to properly plan, Council and Staff should be looking at three things:
1) People moving to the County that are not already here
2) People moving away from the County
3) People are here in the County that want to stay in the County
The “People moving to the County” are largely retirees and tourists. Because there are few jobs here, and starting a business is difficult and expensive, and can be done elsewhere easier and cheaper.
The “People moving away from the County ” are those who either can’t find work, or are retiring to a location with lower taxes, or moving to a location with lower cost of living, or to be with other family elsewhere.
The “People that are here in the County that want to stay in the County” may be staying, but for how long, is uncertain.
Base 31, Kaitlin, Port Picton and other developers are going to have to sell anything they build to “People moving to the County”, because the percentage of “People that are here in the County that want to stay in the County” that can afford (or want to buy) their product is very small, if it exists at all.
So, following that logic, they will be selling largely to retirees and tourists. Despite what everyone seems to think, the likelihood of this being a tsunami in terms of numbers is very small, if it exists at all.
So, Council and Staff continuing to represent the interests of developers and consultants, instead of the “People that are here in the County”, is unconscionable.
Say no. Stop the spend! Fix the budget! Represent your constituents!
In 5 years time when the school board scratches its head and is bewildered that it has to close schools because families can live here and there aren’t enough students to keep schools open they will act like they couldn’t see it coming. The Board will blame the provincial government, the economy or the failure someone else to make things easier for them. Heck, council does this now (highway 49, for example). As a working age person raising a family here, I can tell you that I cant wait to leave. Council can keep arguing about whose fault it is while letting developers run roughshod over the people who pay taxes. Enjoy it folks.
We are working very hard on convincing the children to stay put with their own young families, and not move closer to us as we age. We’d leave if we could, but will just have to deal with what is dealt us. This is not turning into anything we want to leave our children and grandchildren with. The County is only for tourism and subdivisions now. Welcome to Scarborough and Disneyland.
Wait a minute. Haven’t the “Powers That Be” (due to their lack of “vision”) already closed schools in PEC in the last ten years, due to low enrolment, and then shifted our (oh so very young) children over to a high school in Picton? What the heck is left to close? More to the point, what is it going to cost the Residents to rebuild and refurnish new schools (oh Heavens! We couldn’t possibly use the old ones now, could we?) once Council has finished with decimating the County?
WILL SOMEONE / ANYONE ELSE! please request a copy of the Welcome Speeches and Speakers Speeches (all damned four of them – two speeches on behalf of the Residents each folks!) being given by both OUR PEC Mayor Steven Ferguson and CAO Marcia Wallace at this Tour (being held, by the way, today and Friday), for publication in all our local media? I am growing extremely weary of their arrogance with their treatment, and their abject refusal to fully respond to questions made to them by the Residents.
And the Silence is Deafening.
Come to the County, developers!
Your costs and risks will be shared by taxpayers.
Don’t worry, taxpayers are “handled” by Council and Staff.
Green Belt shut down? No problem, no such issue here.
As ever, follow the money.
A question for the Residents, if I may. When is a Tour not a Tourism Venture? You see, my understanding of a typical Prince Edward County Tour (and probably some of you share this as well) would generally encompass pre-wedding parties (Bridal party gathering and/or Stag party gathering, for the last hurrah), wineries, art and music venues, farmers markets, museums, etc.. We all get the picture. Many of our local businesses heavily rely on this to see them through the winter months. So, when is a Tour not a Tourism Venture?
How about:
When a corporation “supported by over 2600 private and public sector members”, organizes a two-day Toronto to Prince Edward County Tour (at the end of November by the way) for its members which consist of: developers, architects, real estate, restaurants, spas, legal firms, banking, property groups, urban planners, consultants (have I missed anybody?). And I’m going to be very clear on this right now – there is absolutely nothing incorrect about this Tour. I’m quite sure this happens a lot – Prince Edward County is, after all, “On The Map” for potential development, whether we like it or not. But a typical County Tour Group, this is not. So…
How about:
When Mayor Ferguson and CAO Marcia Wallace are invited (and accept) an invitation to represent Prince Edward County (that’s us, folks) in their Official roles as the two person Welcome Committee and also accept an invitation to represent Prince Edward County (yup – us again) as two of the Speakers for this event, again in their Official capacity. Am I the only one who’d like a copy of what they intend on saying to this group? Why were they even invited? Kind of changes how I see this event now.
How about:
When the official Prince Edward County Logo is included with the on-line invitation to the members of the business organizing this PEC Tour with, I am assuming here, the “Blessing of Shire Hall”. And how often has that occurred, I wonder?
How about:
When I contacted the Mayor (who elected to leave his response to the CAO) and CAO Marcia Wallace with my concerns about the lack of full local media representation for this Tour (among other concerns, such as did Council know about this, and was this even discussed with the Ward Councillors who represent the Residents?) as both she and the Mayor were using their official capacity to represent us, her response was:
“Hello. I want to correct some misinformation in your email below. First, this event is NOT hosted by the municipality nor are we a partner in this event.
The Mayor, councillors and staff are frequently invited and attend functions that are not hosted by the municipality. The organizers of those events determine who they will invite, including whether the event is open to the media. The Mayor and I were invited to this event to speak about Prince Edward County and have accepted the invitation, as we would with other requests from various organizations interested in the municipality.
The municipality has an events calendar on our website where we publicize events hosted by the municipality. We do not list events or issue notices for events not hosted by the municipality or where we do not have a municipal decision involved.
We recommend you reach out to the organizers of the event if you have any further questions.
Marcia Wallace (she/her)
CAO, Prince Edward County…”
Now then, at no point had I said nor implied that this particular Tour was hosted by the municipality. Or even that I had an opinion on it one way or the other. Quite the contrary, in fact. And Ms. Wallace also failed to answer other concerns in my email. But there you go. And by the way, did any other Residents in PEC know that Shire Hall has accepted other unannounced invitations (quite possibly in this vein), and used their Official Status as our representatives without our knowledge? I sure as heck didn’t, but then again, I’m still learning. Shire Hall has a budget allocated for Advertising, Marketing & Promotion which the Mayor should have used to negotiate with this Tour organizer for local media representation before he and the CAO agreed to attend in their official capacity. (So much for Accountability & Transparency, by the way.)
My concern in all of this is the lack of local media representation for the Residents. Picton Gazette had somehow gotten wind of this event and paid (an expensive ticket, by the way) for the privilege (and I cannot and will not fault them for this), and confirmed their intention to report on this Tour in the PG. Nice one – but as the PG mantra has so far appeared to be “Bring It On” when it comes to unrestrained development in the County, the report will no doubt be one-sided. It would be nice to be surprised with a balance, though. Another question – just how did PG get the heads-up on this Tour in the first place, when the Residents have been clearly left in the dark?
I firmly believe that the residents should have complete local media representation on this Tour, and other tours in the future (Wellington Times, countylive.ca, 99.3 County FM, and lastly, Picton Gazette – who, by the way, should be reimbursed by the Advertising, Marketing & Promotion budget that this is clearly entitled to be used for, AFTER the rest of the media are included of course). I strongly recommend the Mayor (hopefully with a strong nudge from our Councillors) see to it that they are all included as Guests. But I won’t hold my breath.
Thanks, Teena, for informing the public about this concerning matter. I was not aware of this upcoming tour and the involvement of Leadership from Shire Hall in it. There should indeed be more medial coverage of this, with an emphasis on identifying the purpose of the tour and its benefit, if any, to the County and its residents. Hopefully we will get some answers…..