Comment
Pump the brakes
It is now just a pile of rubble. The platform upon which hundreds of millions of dollars was to be spent in Prince Edward County has collapsed. The County’s experts have debunked the assumptions driving massive investment in expanding waterworks infrastructure. It is time to stop. And to reconsider our next step.
Estimates of a population boom were vastly overblown, according to the County’s consulting economist. Growth over the next 30 years will be modest, if it comes at all.
Shire Hall and Council can no longer ignore the implausibility of its plans—nor the crushing effect they will have on the affordability of this community. Shire Hall must now go back to the planning table and start again. It cannot unsee this analysis. Shire Hall paid for it.
Jamie Cook is the managing director for Watson and Associates—the firm this municipality and many others use to forecast growth. He presented the findings of his firm’s regional population forecast to Council last week. It was sobering reading.
Thirty thousand folks aren’t moving to Prince Edward County (the number used to support the regional water plan). Wellington isn’t growing from 2,000 to 8,600 people (Master Servicing Plan). The place may see 9,700 new folks settle across the entire County over the next 30 years. But even that may be a stretch. As noted in Cook’s presentation, the region may not grow at all if history is a guide.
Cook’s message was plain enough.
“There is a risk of overstating growth from the bottom up,” said Cook, methodically explaining how the municipality got its arithmetic wrong. “There is risk in simply looking at your development pipeline—what developers are telling you they are going to build.”
It seems that this is what has happened in Prince Edward County.
Developers make plans. Big plans. Folks get excited. They get caught up in the enthusiasm. It’s understandable.
But it is the market that determines how many homes will be built. Not developers. No homebuilder in North America is building on speculation—hoping that if they build it, people will come.
Understanding the market—demographics, migration trends, history and employment opportunities—is a critical exercise and much more determinative of a community’s growth trajectory.
It is why municipalities, such as the County, retain Watson and firms like them. Their task is to calculate real demand based on a top-down assessment of population growth and new homebuilding. It is also useful to understand what types of homes are needed in the decades ahead. It helps ground more fanciful plans.
Cook points to positive and negative trends shaping Prince Edward County’s growth prospects over the next three decades. After falling for three censuses in a row, the region’s population grew by an average of 1.3 per cent between 2016 and 2021. Cook says work-from-home and hybrid work will likely contribute to continued modest growth.
But he says interest rates and demographics will cause a drag on population growth. According to Cook, the dampening effect of rising interest rates and renewals has not yet fully rippled through the housing market in the region.
The biggest drag in Prince Edward County, however, is our age. Cook reports that the number of County residents aged 75 and older is rising four times faster than the rest of the population. Those aged 85 and older are growing more quickly. In-migration, the number of folks moving here, will have to increase substantially in the coming years to offset the natural population decline.
It all adds up to a very different picture than Shire Hall has painted to support expanding Wellington’s waterworks or extending Wellington water to Picton.
Wellington’s Master Servicing Plan is predicated on the assumption that the village is growing from 2,000 to 8,600 people. The regional water plan— that is, running a pipe from Wellington to Picton— is based on the assumption that Wellington is growing to 14,500 people and Picton is growing to 32,500. Watson makes clear this is not happening. Not in the next 30 years. Not likely ever.
These were fantastical notions on their face. Now, Shire Hall’s expert has confirmed it.
Council must now act. It must demand an immediate stop to infrastructure projects and planning. It must review all spending and the assumptions driving it. Council and County residents must demand that Shire Hall reconcile its ambitions with its experts’ more modest (and reasonable) forecast.
On Jan 14, 2013, Watson and Associates presented this report to Council: LONG TERM POPULATION,
HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT FORECAST AND CAPITAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT. ( http://www.countylive.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Report-of-Watson-and-Associates-PEC-Growth-and-Services.pdf ) In 2066 the permanent population of the County was projected to be 34,350. Ten years later, it seems that the same forecast is being made.
Covid did more than disrupt our daily lives. It made some people look for a way to get out of cramped city accommodations into some more living space. There was a sharp uptick in demand, combined with low interest rates and a restricted housing stock resulting in a rapid upward price climb. Suddenly the County looked like a place that new housing could be built at a good profit. The “Fields of Wellington” appeared with big plans. Kaitlin dusted off the plans and started making new ones. Sandbank Homes continued with its vision of providing homes and service to seniors (only to be rebuffed by Council). Sandbanks Homes is no longer involved in its former proposed east end Wellington development. The Fields have been absorbed by Kaitlin and despite their claims we have not seen even site work commenced.
The market has once again changed. House prices have dropped. Interest rates have gone up. Building material costs remain high. Tourism is down. A couple of substantial tourist operations are for sale.
One could say that we have returned to reality. I agree with Rick. Council should return to reality as well.