Sober outlook

Quinte West expects slow increases in population and new homebuilding

Quinte West is expecting modest population growth—15 per cent—over the next 20 years, according to Watson and Associates. The consulting firm is projecting a population growth rate of under one per cent per year in Quinte West for the next 20 years—roughly in line with the historical trend for that community.

Yet, by contrast, Shire Hall maintains its forecasts for soaring population growth in Prince Edward County—and it is indeed the foundation upon which it has embarked unprecedented waterworks expansion spending in this community.

How can this be? On what basis does anyone imagine this community’s population will expand at a rate three times faster than our Bay of Quinte neighbours? Shouldn’t this give Shire Hall pause?

Someone has some explaining to do.

It doesn’t add up. If Prince Edward County’s population were to grow at the rate expected in Quinte West, the County’s population would rise by just a few hundred people per year. (Given this community’s older demographic, even this may be a stretch.) However, applying that rate, the County’s population will crest 30,000 people in 20 years.

This begs the question: Why is Shire Hall bent on building waterworks for 50,000 people—doubling the population? And who will pay for it when the forecasts prove wildly wrong? Why push forward when all the signals urge caution?

Many questions have been raised about the County’s extravagant growth projections and the assumptions used to support a massive expansion of the waterworks system. Quinte West’s sober assessment of growth raises heaps more.

Quinte West is currently reviewing its development charges. Watson (the economics consultancy the Shire Hall employs) presented its findings to Quinte West council last month. Watson’s modest—one might say reasonable—population growth forecast is just one of the more intriguing bits for County residents.

The presentation also illustrates just how expensive it has become to build homes in the County—particularly in Wellington.

According to the information presented to Quinte West council, development charges (DCs) in Wellington now soar high above those in all the other 15 neighbouring communities in the comparison. Much higher than Cobourg, Kingston and Napanee. Nearly three times the charge in Loyalist Township and Centre Hastings. These charges go directly to the cost of new homes.

The starkest difference, however, is evident in commercial development (retail stores and such), where Wellington’s DC rate is more than double the next highest rate.

It raises questions: How does Shire Hall expect to attract one million square feet of nonresidential development—upon which its waterworks funding relies—in Wellington when its DC rates are many times that of our neighbours? Even if a developer finds this village attractive, they will surely be repelled by the uncompetitive DCs relative to every other community in the region.

And if commercial development doesn’t occur over the 20-year planning time frame—which seems likely—existing waterworks customers will be left with this debt—to be funded through ever-escalating water bills for decades to come.

Prince Edward County has become a case study on how not to do waterworks.

Watson further predicts a slowdown in the pace of new homebuilding in Quinte West over the next two decades. From an average of about 220 new homes (including apartments, townhomes and condos) over the past decade, Watson figures about 200 new homes will be built annually over the three years, dropping to an average of just 156 through to 2045.

Quinte West has built more new homes and apartments than Prince Edward County for just about every year for the past two decades. But Shire Hall expects to break this trend. It expects new homebuilding to wildly exceed historical trends in this community and the surrounding region.

Someone needs to reconcile these two outlooks.