The Great Unwinding

Council agrees to look at the implications of a lower growth forecast

Council took a significant step last week toward backing away from a massive and ultimately “unfinanceable” regional waterworks plan it began five years ago. Shire Hall has already spent $42 million on the plan so far—but it was just a fraction of the $310 million that previous senior leadership had promised to spill just a few short months ago.

Everything is now on hold. Why? Because the population growth the plan relied on hasn’t happened.

Council agreed last week—unanimously— to direct staff to “investigate the implications of reducing population growth projections from 2.4 per cent to 1 per cent”.

It is a big deal. The first scenario imagined 438 new homes built each year for 20 years or longer. A one per cent outlook, however, points to perhaps 150 new homes per year. While higher than the County’s 25-year average (125 homes), it is objectively a more credible forecast.

Had the municipality spent hundreds of millions—as planned—to build out its infrastructure in anticipation of the higher growth rate (2.4 per cent) and hundreds of new homes didn’t materialize, the County’s existing water ratepayers would be on the hook to foot the bill.

The County would have had to rely instead on senior levels of government, the development community—or both—to underwrite these capital works.
Not all council members were prepared to concede that their long-held expectations of explosive population growth in Prince Edward County were wrong. In fact, some members, including Mayor Steve Ferguson and Councillor John Hirsch, continue to hope that the staff investigation they approved last week might yet vindicate their faith in a $400 million regional waterworks plan.

But they were a minority. Some wanted to know how the municipality got so far down the path toward a regional plant without express Council endorsement. Another councillor welcomed the end of the fairy tale.

“There is a better chance of a frog becoming a prince than the County’s population surging,” said Hillier councillor Chris Braney.

The Hillier councillor reminded his colleagues who they serve around the council table.

“Residents elected us. Not developers,” said Braney.

Most council members, however, appeared relieved— thankful for the staff report that had pulled the County back from the abyss of potentially ruinous infrastructure spending.