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When and where?
This is the week things changed. Any illusion the invasion of Ukraine would be over quickly—that it would fade from the front pages—has been dashed. Putin’s murderous stranglehold on Kyiv, Odesa and Mariupol is tightening. Thousands are dying each week now—children, women, soldiers, civilians, escaping refugees. The atrocities are coming so fast, and frequently we risk becoming numb to the daily horror of life in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian people are pleading for the rest of the world to enforce a no-fly zone over their country—to stop the aerial bombardment, to give them a fighting chance. It is time we talked about it. Seriously.
Ukrainians are putting up a good fight. And Russian forces are having a harder time of it. Morale is poor. Casualties are high and growing. But Ukraine is outgunned in this fight and is battling a foe who does not care how many soldiers, mercenaries, civilians, or refugees perish in this march.
Putin is winning. The notion that his forces would collapse in the 60k traffic jam heading into Kyiv has evaporated. So too has the hope that Russian security folks would remove Putin and end the invasion. It will be long and bloody, but Putin will likely emerge victoriously. An empty and hollow victory for sure—but he will be emboldened.
That must compel us to ask ourselves some tough questions about our role in this. Our duty. If not here, where? If not now, when? How many Ukrainians must be slaughtered before we respond more vigorously? Is it all of them? Most of them?
When will we drop the façade of non-intervention? We are shipping arms, missiles and other gear every week to Ukraine. We are already active in this war. Last week the US conspired to send F-16 fighter jets to Poland to replace 28 MiG jets Warsaw wants to lend to Ukraine. The scheme foundered on a sad bit of military bureaucracy, but the intention was correct—even if the flesh was weak.
It recalls an episode in June 1940 as Churchill was pleading for aircraft from the US President Roosevelt had just been elected, in part on a promise of neutrality. But unwilling to leave Britain in the lurch, the American president arranged to have dozens of fighter aircraft sent to an airfield in Houlton, Maine, about a kilometre from the New Brunswick border. From there, Canadians arrived with horses and trucks, dragged the aircraft across the border, and flew them to Britain.
It is a fine and nostalgic story—but it obscures the fact that it didn’t fix anything. It did not change the tide of the war. It would be another 17 months before the Americans decided they could look away no longer, finally spurred to action by the bombing of Pearl Harbour.
President Joe Biden repeated last week that his country would not enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Doing so would result in World War 3 and potential nuclear escalation, he said. There are many smart and astute military observes who agree with him. Others say it was a mistake for Biden to signal passivity in the face of Putin’s aggression, yet the question of escalation requires some serious reflection. The risks are profound and terrifying.
Across Prince Edward County, signs of spring are beginning to emerge. Our lives are comfortable. Safe. Peaceful. We are far away from the hellscape that is Kharkiv or Irpin. We send money and urge our government to send helmets and bullets.
But we aren’t ready yet to commit to stopping Putin. He’s a madman with few constraints on his power. If cornered, he may yet unleash nuclear weapons upon Ukraine or the West. If that happens, America will have to respond in kind. How will China react? Or Iran? South Korea? Pakistan? World order can unravel in a heartbeat.
These are serious questions. Lacking easy answers. They demand our serious consideration.
But here is the thing: Will Putin be satisfied with crushing Ukraine? I suspect we already know the answer: It is found in Chechnya, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus and Syria. It is evident in Crimea. And the Donbas.
Will we remain on the sidelines as Putin’s forces consume Moldova? I worry the answer is yes. How about Romania and Bulgaria? Or the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? Will Poland be too far? Finland?
Putin will not stop. He must be stopped. That leaves only the question of when and where?
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