Who says?

Who says Prince Edward County’s population is growing? Who says the population is doubling in the foreseeable future? Who says Wellington is growing seven times its current size to 14,500 people and Picton by six times to 32,600? If it sounds incredible to you—as in, not credible at all—it should. The County’s population has remained stubbornly close to 25,000 souls for a century and a half. That is a long, stable, flat line. So when someone tells you the County is suddenly embarking on transformational growth in population, you must ask yourself: Who says so?

The answer may surprise you. Watson and Associates is among the leading economic consultancies in the province. They have been advising Prince Edward County since 2008, when the municipality introduced development charges and began to regularize its waterworks spending and rates.

Shire Hall and Council often point to Watson’s studies as proof that this growth is just around the corner. Except this isn’t what Watson says. The consultant has never said Wellington, Bloomfield, and Picton are growing to 50,000 people. That is a fiction created from whole cloth inside Shire Hall—to support $200 million of spending on infrastructure expansion and pipelines to Picton.

So how much growth does Watson see occurring in Prince Edward County?

Watson’s findings suggest growth in the region— Hastings County and PEC—may range from little or none (the historical trend) to 0.6 per cent to 1.1 per cent annually. According to the consultant’s medium growth scenario, it estimates perhaps 9,700 new residents between 2021 and 2051—or about 323 net additions to the County population per year.

Most consider this level of growth crazy ambitious— given the historical population stability and the age of County residents—but even if you assume it possible, it doesn’t get you to 50,000 people—as Shire Hall predicts. Under Watson’s optimistic scenario, the County’s population will top out at about 36,000 folks by 2051.

Here is why it’s important. While unlikely, adding 325 people to the County each year is manageable with the existing waterworks infrastructure— infrastructure designed and built to be expandable and modular. A new water plant isn’t needed in Wellington. A 20-kilometre long pipeline to Picton isn’t needed either. The Wellington plants—water and wastewater were designed to be modified and expanded for a growing community. The Picton water plant needs more work—but it is much less costly than running a pipeline from Wellington.

So the question is: How does Shire Hall figure Wellington, Bloomfield, and Picton’s population is soaring to 50,000 people? If all this spending relies on growth at this scale—where is the evidence? Where is the third-party review to support it?

More to the point: why isn’t Council asking these questions? How is Council approving massive, unprecedented expenditures without understanding the sensitivity of its forecasts? Of the fragility inherent in such long-term projections? Or the necessity of viewing any forecast exceeding the historical pattern with rigorous scrutiny and some humility?

Perhaps the County Audit Committee will ask these questions now, but it is starting work late in the day. And there can be no assurance Council will listen even if they wave a warning flag. Yet, this is all we have left.

One more thing: Watson doesn’t know the future. It is not an oracle. They do not speak for God. They would acknowledge as much if asked. Watson produces estimates. They estimate better than you and me. But they are still estimates. Watson’s Jamie Cook said as much to a gathering in Wellington last fall. Watson prepares defensible forecasts based on the trends and patterns they see in front of them. And when they get it wrong, they will return in a few years and revise their forecasts—upward or downward. These were Cook’s words.

The problem is that we don’t have a few years. Shire Hall is betting big money right now that the County’s population will double in the next few decades. No one believes it. Not even Watson.

It is only developers describing such a pace of growth—folks who are keenly interested in the municipality extending infrastructure to their land.

Moreover, Watson makes mistakes. Work this complex is prone to error. They are humans. Furthermore, Watson’s output is only as good as the data it receives.

Errors, however, don’t diminish the importance of the exercise. It is critical to forecast growth and plan accordingly. But estimates aren’t fact. They are informed guesses. In other circumstances, Watson getting it wrong would have only temporary consequences— to be remedied later. But getting it wrong in this instance will have permanent consequences.

If Shire Hall gets it wrong: spending $200 million ($44 million has already been committed) on new infrastructure to accommodate population growth that doesn’t show up or trickles in at the historical pattern, it is existing waterworks ratepayers across the County who will pay this ruinous debt through ever more expensive water rates.

Who says? And why are they saying it?

rick@wellingtontimes.ca