Who’s next?

Last week Dalton McGuinty announced he had managed to wrestle a two-year wage freeze from the OPP across the province. But not before he had handed over an immediate five per cent wage increase. And not before he promised another 8.5 per cent ‘catch up’ pay raise when the freeze ends in 2014. For those playing along at home that’s 13.5 per cent over four years, or, put another way, an average 3.3 per cent increase per year for the next four years. It’s pretty much what he gave the OPP in the last contract. So what do you call a wage freeze that doesn’t freeze wages? Hocus pocus? A bad joke? Or, the final straw?

The McGuinty government appears to be teetering these days under the weight of eight years of power. Ontarians are losing patience with his government. Most haven’t seen a three per cent increase in years and see little prospect of it in the foreseeable future. Those with jobs are happy to have them.Those living on fixed incomes aren’t getting three per cent increases either. Many feel as though they have gone backwards in the eight years since McGuinty came to power. It is frustrating to hear him say he is holding the line on public service wages and then learn he has done no such thing.

It gets worse. In 2008 he conceded a three per cent hike to the government’s largest union to take effect in 2012 in order to keep peace. This secret deal was hidden from the public until it was inadvertently revealed in a labour relations board hearing earlier this month.

His sclerotic and tired government has other serious problems: the HST; soaring electricity bills; millions of dollars wasted at eHealth. In rural Ontario McGuinty’s confused and confusing management of the energy file is disfiguring large swaths of the provincial landscape with industrial wind turbines. In Toronto there is still festering uneasiness about how McGuinty silently stripped citizens of fundamental rights in order to stage the G20 summit last summer.

But perhaps it is not all Dalton McGuinty’s fault. It seems democratic governments tend to lose their way after a couple terms. They collect enough baggage and endure enough criticism, they no longer hear the drum beat that signals that their time is up. After eight years the sheer weight of unpopular decisions becomes too much even for the strong back of Premier Dad.

Come October the McGuinty reign will likely meet the fate that befalls most governments that have been around too long.

Yet, as hard as it is to imagine, Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives may yet snatch defeat from McGuinty’s teeth. While Hudak has made the right noises on energy policy (i.e. scrapping the Green Energy Act, FIT programs and restoring local authority over industrial wind turbines to the municipalities) he and his party have also made some worrisome missteps.

By promising to eliminate the HST from electricity bills (look a little closer and it is just the province’s portion he will do away with) he is, in one stroke, opening the door to a convoluted tax code and signalling to the electorate that he is as short-sighted and opportunistic as the guy he seeks to replace. Most Ontarians want their electrical system and energy supply managed well—they don’t want it used as a political wand.

Hudak must also guard against a hard turn to the right within his ranks. Despite Rob Ford’s success in Toronto and Stephen Harper’s majority government in Ottawa—Ontario voters haven’t suddenly tuned in to Rush Limbaugh or begun festooning their vehicles with Sarah Palin bumper stickers. Instead they have simply turned their backs on governments that have lost respect for taxpayers and the dollars these folks work hard to send to Toronto or Ottawa.

Hudak must rein in the likes of Randy Hillier and his narrow agenda. Thirty-three year veteran MPP Norm Sterling was recently ousted from his Carleton Place- Mississippi Mills nomination in a coup orchestrated by Hillier and the Lanark Landowners Association.This is an ominous turn of events.

If Hillier and other right-wing idealogues become the face of the Ontario PCs—Dalton McGuinty may have to resort to killing kittens to avoid being re-elected, simply by default.

Here in Prince Edward County, the PCs have thrown over a successful and well-respected businessman for an untested broadcaster appointed by Toronto party officials. The party has shown extremely poor form, cutting local members out of the decision making, and in leading Eric DenOuden down the garden path these past months—unable to admit they were holding out for a ‘star’ candidate.

Todd Smith may yet unseat Leona Dombrowsky—but he starts at less than zero. He has no track record to draw upon. And he must first overcome the sour taste this messy nomination process has left in the mouths of many Prince Edward-Hastings voters. He must also overcome a formidable campaigner in Dombrowksy. Neither will be easy.

As it looks right now—all Tim Hudak and the PCs need do is show up on October 6 and voters will let him and his party drive for the next four years. But Hudak’s risk remains that, the more voters get to know his party and the government he hopes to form, the better Premier Dad looks.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca