Carrots

It seems we have two paths out of COVID- 19—more lockdowns or vaccinations. For a year, public policy officials had only the hammer of lockdowns. As a result, we endured, and continue to abide, profound restrictions upon fundamental liberty and staggering disruption to our economic, educational and social lives. Constraints that would have been unimaginable before March 2020 have locked us away in homes for months at a stretch. Since then, more than 26,000 Canadians have died—a population, the size of Prince Edward County, wiped out. Many more sick.

But in an astonishingly short amount of time, our brightest minds produced a vaccine— a handful of them—safe and effective protection in under a year. In nearly as remarkable a feat, pharmaceutical manufacturers have scaled production. Since December, 3.56 billion doses of the COVID vaccine have been administered. In seven months. It is breathtaking stuff.

Canadians have responded by taking the vaccine in impressive numbers. According to the CBC, 79 per cent of those eligible—12 and over—have received at least one dose. We surpassed the US last week, with more citizens vaccinated per million people. Another impressive achievement, given the delay in getting out of the blocks.

Yet, there are worrying signs. Vaccination jabs have slowed over the past month. The rate of first doses has stalled at well under 100,000 per day since June 16, according to a CBC report. There remain as many as six million more folks yet to be vaccinated.

It is unclear what is going on here. I expect the hesitancy is due to a wide array of factors— from anxiety around needles, fear of adverse reactions and poor information sources—and may be difficult to pin down. It seems plausible, too, that many young folks have persuaded themselves that the virus doesn’t pose a significant threat to their wellbeing— that it isn’t a pressing concern in their lives.

Perhaps, then, we ought to look closer at a vaccine card. Ontario Premier Doug Ford ruled it out last week—but I have yet to hear a persuasive argument against proof of vaccination to gain admittance to public spaces, work in healthcare settings, etc.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced last week that beginning in August, anyone visiting a nursing home or hospital, café or theatre must show a COVID-19 health pass. We should watch Macron’s experiment attentively. Headlines on Monday reported nationwide protests on Sunday—as many as 100,000 out on the streets showing their disproval of the government. This seems a typical weekend in a nation that made a fetish of slicing heads from their leaders’ bodies.

More interestingly was that Macron’s announcement sparked a new wave of inoculations. Averaging fewer than 200,000 doses administered per day—and trending downward— the French have, since the announcement of the vaccine pass requirements, seen vaccination appointments soar.

More appointments have been arranged in the past 48 hours than over the previous 18 days, according to The Economist magazine. Three-fifths of the bookings have been for people aged between 18 and 39 years. Nearly 1.4 million appointments were made on Friday.

That looks like smart policy. One that is working.

Closer to home, Premier Ford has set benchmarks required to exit Stage 3 restrictions— 80 per cent of those eligible must have their first dose and 70 per cent of those having received their second dose.

Of the 34 health units in the province, Hastings Prince Edward is near the bottom with 74 per cent (first dose) and 47 per cent (with the second dose). There are surely some solid and defensible reasons for this lag. The supply of vaccines was limited to this and other regions early on, as the available doses were diverted to communities with raging infection rates. We have been playing catch-up ever since.

My issue isn’t so much about execution—it seems, especially lately, the supply, distribution and jabbing of arms has been going smoothly. Rather it seems time to change up the marketing and communication strategy.

As recently as a week ago, the HPE health unit was cautioning residents not to let down their guard—and staying vigilant to the threat of the Delta variant. After a time, the threat of the hammer tends to lose its effectiveness.

It seems we need to be supplementing these messages with a campaign to encourage those who are unvaccinated yet to get the jab.

Mayor Steve Ferguson has done a good job of talking to residents directly during this pandemic. It seems now is the time to pivot toward the marketing of the vaccine—that it is the doorway to freedom, an act of community solidarity, an act of civic pride. I don’t know the exact message, but it seems local health unit and municipal officials will want to get ahead of the issue.

Let us use the carrot now. Persuasion. Encouragement. Inducements maybe. Ramp up the marketing.

Let us see if it is enough to get us over this admittedly arbitrary target. To get to safety. Let us do so fully awake to the possibility that it may take constraints upon the unvaccinated to end the pandemic. Carrots imply sticks.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca