Cost to complete

The pipes were expected to be in the ground by now. The Millennium Trail was to have been restored. Perhaps some raking and planting. Clean up. That was the prediction when the contract was approved by Council in January 2024. Construction of the water and wastewater trunklines was to be finished by June 2025.

That was then.

That was then. The Times has learned that work will continue for at least another year.

Recent conversations with the contractor and managing consultants have revealed that trunkline and pumping station construction are expected to extend to August 2026—a full year later than planned.

That’s worrying enough. But it raises other questions: How are the delays and challenges likely to affect the cost? How much will it take to finish this project? What is the exposure of existing waterworks customers to cost overruns and delays?

Residents need to know this before Council considers embarking on another risky infrastructure adventure. It must understand its financial exposure to this project. And we must know who will pay the bill.

When Council approved the project a year ago January, the bid price was $16.1 million. By that point, it was already clear that the trunklines, as designed, wouldn’t work. A pumping station was required at the top of Wharf Street to ensure the wastewater kept flowing. The bid price for a pumping station was $6.8 million. The price tag had risen to $24.9 million (Before digging had begun, the cost had already doubled from the 2020 Master Servicing Plan estimates of $12.2 million.)

It seems likely that Shire Hall’s cost estimates will prove to be as flimsy as its timetable. The cost is certain to be higher. But by how much? We need this answer. Before another dime is spent.

It is customary on large infrastructure projects for the municipality to obtain a “cost to complete”. This is an estimate to know where it stands and what the impact on budget is likely to be. It is a crucial measure when managing a project of this scale. Council needs a “cost to complete” estimate on the trunklines project, and it needs to share it with residents, including waterworks customers—the folks underwriting the risks of this project.

So there it is: another year of pounding, blasting, disruption and large trucks navigating wee village streets. Remember that the access roads from Belleville Road were to have been built by now—diverting truck traffic out of the village. But the developer seemingly has little interest in taking the initial steps toward developing its property. As such, there is no access road from Belleville Road. That means the truck and heavy equipment traffic will continue to trundle through the narrow streets of Wellington. For at least another year.

It is a nuisance and certainly disheartening for the folks who endure it every day. It is right and fair for them to ask their elected representatives to tell them precisely who is meant to be served by their sacrifice.

The monumental risk is that Council agrees to embark on yet more costly infrastructure adventures before it knows what went wrong on this, relatively small component. Essential to risk mitigation is to measure past and ongoing performance— to assess the likelihood of success as it heads into the fire swamp of hazards that lie ahead.

Another question: Why don’t we know this already? Why hasn’t a year-long extension to the project been shared with residents who must endure the pounding, blasting and trucks every day? Why don’t we know the cost to complete? These seem essential components of managing infrastructure projects of this scale. Why hasn’t any of this happened?

It is important.

Last year, the Council committed to prepare three plans before embarking on any further waterworks construction spending: a robust financial plan, an experienced project management plan and a responsive communications plan.

The sad experience of the Wellington trunklines project underlines the desperate need for more rigorous project management. The surprises are killing us.

rick@wellingtontimes.ca