Comment
Make believe
The arithmetic doesn’t add up. The scale of the project is monstrous. No one at Shire has undertaken anything like this before. And, nearly all the risk they are taking will fall to residents (municipal water customers) who don’t need it, won’t use it and didn’t ask for it. But surely the most frightening bit is the make-believe arithmetic.
Shire Hall estimates it can build a water pipeline from Wellington to Picton (20 kilometres) at about half the cost per kilometre it is spending on two kilometres in Wellington (connecting the intake in Wellington to the water tower). This wildly optimistic nugget is just one of the fragile twigs underpinning the County’s $300 million waterworks extravaganza.
Before July 24, Shire Hall must obtain a true and accurate picture of the trunkline project in Wellington. It must prove that it can build big things. And do so on budget. This milestone will tell a critical story about the risk of this undertaking and, I expect, paint a picture of the hazards that lie ahead. But it must be known before Council spends another dime on this project.
The track record isn’t inspiring.
The new water tower in Wellington was supposed to cost $6.9 million. The final price was $10.8 million—a worrying 56 per cent miss. Shire Hall paid a consultant for the estimate. It paid the contractor much more.
The Picton sewage treatment plant was built on a hillside. It was supposed to cost $16 million. It cost $35 million—a 120 per cent miss.
Just a few million dollars. Perhaps it’s not a big deal in the context of a municipality that will spend $60 million this year. But when you start stacking up million-dollar mistakes, it can quickly add up to real money. The warning lights are flashing red.
It brings us back to the trunklines currently being constructed in Wellington (water and sewer pipes across the village under the Millennium Trail to the plants). The two-kilometre run was originally estimated at $12 million. When the contract was let in November 2023, the cost had risen to $16.1 million. However, it soon became apparent that a pumping station was needed to keep the poo flowing. Another $6.8 million. Total $22.9 million. A 90 per cent miss.
Except it isn’t done. The final cost hasn’t yet been tallied.
Worryingly, the project does not appear to have gone well. Set aside the issues surrounding the months-long closure of Main Street (now mercifully resolved), the incessant pounding of industrial-scale jackhammers hints at the extreme challenge of digging a metres-deep trench through the unforgiving bedrock that lurks just below the surface.
Further, the contractor has encountered a series of challenges burrowing under Lane Creek. Severe enough to warrant special attention from regulatory agencies. Do you suppose there are any other creeks or waterways between Wellington and Picton?
At a minimum, Shire Hall—and Council—must know the final tally of this Wellington project before it embarks on extending it to Picton.
But even before this is known, there are important reasons to check the arithmetic.
Disentangling the water from the sewer trunk lines (and pumping station) from the two-kilometre project— intake to the water tower—the water pipeline will cost about $10 million, according to Shire Hall’s current (Oct 2024) estimate.
Here is where it gets confusing. According to the same estimate, Shire Hall figures it can extend the water pipeline 20 kilometres to Picton for $56 million. Ten times further, but just 5.5 times more expensive. About $5 million per kilometre in Wellington versus $2.8 million per kilometre to Picton.
It is hopeful—bordering on reckless. Assuming Wellington’s portion of the water pipeline comes in on budget of $10 million (a big optimistic assumption) and Shire Hall manages to maintain this cost per- kilometre for the 20-kilometre stretch to Picton—that’s $100 million. For the pipeline alone. A 78 per cent miss. Likely a best-case scenario.
County council can’t continue to rely on wishful thinking while expecting taxpayers to bail them out. Ratepayers cannot continue to pay for Shire Hall’s mistakes. No responsible governing board can permit this to carry on. The current price tag is $300 million. It will likely be much, much more.
The numbers must add up.
When you say “Perhaps it’s not a big deal in the context of a municipality that will spend $60 million this year”, that number seems very low when compared to actual expenses.
Per the most recently posted Audited Financial Statements for the year ended Dec 31, 2023 on the County’s own Web site (Reference: https://www.thecounty.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2023-12-31-PEC-Cons-and-Trust-wFS-signed-AC-MW.pdf), on page 8, the Total Expenses spent was $83,719,637, which was $2,622,979 MORE THAN THE BUDGET of $81,096,658. (That’s a 3.23% MISS, FYI.)
The more important thing in my opinion is that this $83.7 million spent in 2023 is $3,257 for every single human being residing in the County, per the only statistic that is somewhat reliable — Statistics Canada’s most recent census of 2021 (Reference: https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&DGUIDlist=2021A00053513020&GENDERlist=1,2,3&STATISTIClist=1&HEADERlist=0)
Over $3,250 per human. That’s unbelievable for a County that is marketing itself as a bucolic, quiet little escape from the urbanization of the GTA and other major cities.
But those spending numbers are over 17 months old. An Action Request was made to the new Director of Finance, Arryn McNichol, for more up to date numbers as at the end of last month.
The Executive Assistant to Mr. McNichol sent a brief email response to that Action Request, that Mr. McNichol advised that updated information would not be disclosed until the presentation of the Audited Financial Statements for the year ended Dec 31, 2024, by KPMG of Kingston, to the Audit Committee. That has not happened in past years until August. So, at that point, even THOSE numbers will be 8 months out of date.
Wildly out of control. Totally opaque. No transparency.
But it seems to be “the County way”.
I invite anyone to prove me wrong. Everything is fine, Council and the Mayor say. Nothing to see here, Staff says.
Prove it.