Ship has sailed

Expert assesses enormous risk in Cold Creek subdivision, but warning comes too late for Council to turn back

Something is wrong here. Something is very, very wrong.” Such is the professional assessment of a subdivision proposed in the watershed of Waring’s Creek. David MacGillivray is an engineer and hydrogeologist who specializes in subdivision hydrogeology and development engineering hydrogeology working to understand how development impacts the watershed ecology. MacGillivray is advising the Waring’s Creek Improvement Association (WCIA).

MacGillivray presented his assessment of the Cold Creek subdivision at a meeting of council last week. His assessment was bleak.

“In my almost 30 years, I have never seen an application of this scope and magnitude get as far as it has in approvals without adequate monitoring and without adequate study being done. Never seen this. It’s really a shame,” explained MacGillivray.

Specifically, he worries about challenging construction issues, installation and maintenance of utilities and the real risk of flooded basements in future subdivisions.

Most alarming, he predicts massive issues with constructing a stormwater pond. His calculations suggest that doing so will require as much as 20 million litres per day to be drained to build this pond.

Doing so leads to other knock-on impacts. Where does drained water go, and what will a lower water table do to neighbouring wells and Waring’s Creek?

“It is all sand and gravel out there and a high water table. Twenty million litres a day,” MacGillivray repeated. “The developer’s consultant predicts zero. They don’t anticipate anything.”

Something is very wrong, indeed.

MacGillivray says that not nearly enough monitoring has been done. Nor has the monitoring been done long enough to enable Shire Hall and Council to understand the groundwater on this property. He says most subdivisions of this scale monitor the site for a year or up to three years before getting approval. Council approved the Cold Creek subdivision—a project known to be a sensitive watershed—with just five months of data.

“Even with just five months of data, it shows the groundwater two metres higher than it was in September. These are huge fluctuations,” said MacGillivray. “You need time to measure the fluctuations to say with confidence where the groundwater level is going to be.”

MacGillivray blames the provincial government for hollowing out Conservation Authorities and shifting this responsibility onto hapless municipalities. He acknowledges that municipalities don’t have the tools and the technical expertise to substitute for this agency—yet, they have nevertheless assumed the responsibility.

What does it mean?

“Basements will flood,” predicted MacGillivray. “This is like trying to put a basement into Lake Ontario. You are going to get residents calling you when this is built out, saying they have water flowing through their basement. Sump pumps will not be able to keep up.”

WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Not much, it seems. Not by Council. The entire subdivision has been approved, explained Sarah Viau, acting head of Development Services. No new conditions may be added or guardrails erected at this point. The ship—as far as Council’s power goes—has sailed.

It is now up to municipal development staff and the developer to hammer out a site plan for the first phase. A lot of responsibility has been put on their table.

Sarah Viau said that among the conditions set by Council when it approved the subdivision in February was to ensure 10 years of monitoring— a means to achieve a cumulative impact assessment. She suggested such monitoring and data would be used by staff to inform the design of future phases.

She promised to keep Council informed—underlining the fact that Council’s role was at an end.

“A notice of decision has already been issued to the developer,” explained Viau. “That the development has been approved.”

Viau added that the WCIA might remain involved in the process—but on an informal basis. The group leading the advocacy of Waring’s Creek and watershed for three decades will have no formal role.

RECOMMENDATION
David MacGillivray argues that much more monitoring or testing be done before site plan approval is granted by Shire Hall staff.

“You need to understand the water table,” said MacGillivray. “You need to make decisions based upon data and science. You simply don’t have enough data right now.”

Councillor Sam Branderhorst returned to the prospect of millions of litres per day being drained from the water table to build the stormwater pond.

“Who will be liable for any damages that result?” asked the Athol councillor.

MacGillivray said it’s a significant issue.

“In other places, there will be an agreement to put it into the sewer system. I don’t think you have a sewer system that can manage this much water. It may not be possible.”

Shire Hall and Council have a problem. They can’t unring the bell, sounded by MacGillivray. They can’t unhear the hazards detailed by an experienced hydrogeologist. Or the insufficient monitoring of the groundwater. It can’t escape the liability of flooded basements, now that the risk has been articulated by an expert.

It may not be possible to stop this development now—but the onus has shifted enormously from Council to now rest upon the shoulders of Shire Hall staff to protect the interests of this community. They are the last line of defence for residents, for the watershed and for future homeowners in this subdivision.