County News

Shovels down

Posted: Jan 16, 2026 at 10:28 am   /   by   /   comments (2)

County building in three charts

In 2025, new homebuilding in Prince Edward County extended a downward trend that has persisted for several years. Sadly, the data provide no signal that this trend will end in 2026.

NEW HOMEBUILDING
Since 2022, new home starts have pulled back each year in Prince Edward County. Last year, just 96 new home permits were issued. Only 75 of these were single detached homes—the remainder (21) were second suites. Not since 2014 has the sector produced as few homes as it did last year.

While municipal council members tout development subdivision agreements as evidence of growth, the actual numbers paint a different story. The County has seen new home construction this depressed only six times in the past 27 years.

CONSTRUCTION VALUE
But this story isn’t limited to new homebuilding. Building generally is trending downward in Prince Edward County. The value of construction, of all types, has been on a steady decline since 2022, except in 2024, when the permit to build a new hospital in Picton boosted performance that year.

ALL BUILDING PERMITS
Meanwhile, the number of all building permits issued by Shire Hall continued to slide in 2025, from 1,076 in 2021 to just 565 last year. Simply put, there is less building activity happening in the County. Fewer homes, industrial buildings, and agricultural buildings. Fewer sheds, decks and renovations.

The County experience echoes a trend broadly felt across Canada—but the impact may be greater here. Shire Hall spent a great deal of money on the assumption that a building boom was “imminent”. Now that the boom has become a bust, it is existing residents who will pay the bill.

WHAT IT MEANS
Until early last year, Shire Hall officials, along with several council members, proclaimed loudly that 4,200 new homes would be built by 2032. Another 4,500 were coming in the decade after that. They asserted their belief with certainty and charts. Full page advertisements.

To do this, the new homebuilding sector would have to build at least 525 new units per year. Last year, fewer than a hundred permits were issued. The average new homebuilding rate over the previous 27 years is 125 units. The most productive year in the last three decades, 2017, saw 178 new homes built. It was always a fantasy. But the story was repeated often and ever more stridently.

The forecasts of a new homebuilding boom were used to support equally fantastical waterworks infrastructure schemes—including the trunklines currently burrowing across Wellington.

Shire Hall has already committed $50 million to expanding the waterworks in Wellington based upon faulty assumptions. It had planned to spend more than $300 million to extend Wellington water to Picton.

The municipal folks who made these decisions are gone now. Yet these zombie spending plans continue to lurk in the background, churning consulting fees and consuming staff resources. There is a big mess to clean up. A sober reassessment is needed. It is existing residents, sadly, who are left to pay the bills.

In 2025, new homebuilding fell well below the average rate since 1998. Past cycles in Prince Edward County suggest it could take another year or two to work out a bottom.

Comments (2)

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  • Jan 17, 2026 at 12:18 pm Parachute packing

    Good data, and everyone who pays property taxes in the County should be paying attention, and should be mightily concerned.

    With respect, however, not all “municipal folks who made these decisions are gone now”.

    The article may be referring to folks like the CAO and Director of Finance that departed in 2025, and some of their staff.

    However, Staff spending is driven, and approved ,by the 13 Councillors and the Mayor. (If you want to put faces to the 14 names, see here –> https://www.thecounty.ca/government/council/

    In less than 9 months, County voters will be asked to cast their votes for a new Council and Mayor. In less than 4 months, we should expect registration for a citizen to be a candidate to open.

    My wife and I followed my kids to the County from away. They moved here around 2015, and because we wanted to be near them and our grandkids, we moved here in 2019. We built our own house through the pandemic, mostly ourselves, but with local plumbing, electrical, landscaping, roofing, and framing help. They renovated their old farm and house with the help of local people.

    In the year ended Dec 31, 2015, the County had a NEGATIVE net worth of just over $31 Million, and spent $58.1 million during the year for all government departments. The population of the County at that time was just under 25,000.

    We will not get to know what these numbers are as at Dec 31, 2025, until August or September. But for the year ended Dec 31, 2024, the County’s Net Worth had fallen to almost NEGATIVE $55 million, and Staff spent over $96 million during the year for all government departments. With the severance packages and continued bloating, it would not be surprising to see the Net Worth for the year ended Dec 31, 2025 fall to NEGATIVE $60 million or lower, and the spending to top $100 million.

    All this, for a population of the County unlikely to be changed much from that 25,000 figure that has been the case for the past decade. We will know more when the 2026 Census from Stats Canada is completed in a few months.

    Starting this fall, we need a Mayor and Council that will stand up for County residents and taxpayers. And if they do not understand the complex language in endless reports and presentations they get from Staff, they just need to have the courage and the will to admit that they do not understand. If Staff wishes cannot be expressed in plain English, the answer should just be “no”. Come back when you can explain in plain English.

    In our family, our kids moved away 2 years ago, in the face of rising County taxes and bureaucracy, limited opportunities for employment, and not much value from municipal services. They have now found those opportunities elsewhere and are doing well. We will be following them, in the not too distant future, because although we are nearly retired, we will not sit back and watch our taxes grow, grow and grow more, with nothing delivered to us for it. With our kids and grandkids having moved away.

    While we are still here, though, we will continue to support our neighbours and friends, and will happily financially support the campaigns of anyone who is not an incumbent, who wishes to stand for election to a Councillor or the Mayor role. All we ask is the candidate be willing to stand up for County residents and taxpayers, say “no” to further onslaught of outside interests, developers, and consultants, and preserve a decent quality of life for those who remain here or retire here.

    Please consider running in this year’s municipal election, if this describes you. Warning: You will hear lots of people (incumbents included) tell you how terrible the job is.

    You, and only you, can decide which is worse — being part of the solution, or subject to the whims of a small group of people in control who do not listen and hear your concerns.

    Reply
    • Jan 17, 2026 at 3:29 pm Teena

      With regard to a very small portion of your comment [which is excellent, by the way], it would be important to note that NOT just the CAO and Director of Finance vacated the premises (along with various staff, apparently):

      “With respect, however, not all “municipal folks who made these decisions are gone now”.

      The article may be referring to folks like the CAO and Director of Finance that departed in 2025, and some of their staff.”

      In 2025 we had a serious reduction in Senior Staffing at Shire Hall. I believe this may be unprecedented in Prince Edward County. In less than one year (I believe this began in May when the CAO departed), the following eight senior positions departed the Corporation of the County of Prince Edward [salary/benefit information to be found on the public website for the 2025 Ontario Sunshine List]:

      XXXXXXXXXX

      Marcia Wallace, Chief Administrative Officer
      Salary: $230,17.36
      Benefits: $7,178.97

      Michael Michaud, Manager of Planning
      Salary: $140,465.10
      Benefits: $3,794.28

      Matthew Coffey, Planning Coordinator
      Salary: $134,793.03
      Benefits: $891.33

      Amanda Carter, Director of Finance
      Salary: $190,282.43
      Benefits: $1,112.67

      Chad Brown, Fire Chief [note – he was only in this job one year…]
      Salary: $177.016.26
      Benefits: $910.80

      Kyle Cotton, Director of Long Term Care
      Salary: $170,034.34
      Benefits: $901.89

      Peter Moyer, Director of Development Services
      Salary: $197,773.56
      Benefits: $1,087.68

      Becky O’Hara, Deputy Clerk
      Salary/Benefits: unknown

      Reply